Population in Canada: Adjustments

This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.

Historic quarterly population estimates have been revised, pushing total levels higher than previously thought

• The release of fresh quarterly population numbers introduced two new adjustments to the estimates of non-permanent residents: entry and exit data from Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) to estimate the proportion of permit holders who left Canada prior to the expiry of their permits, and the inclusion of individuals who have applied for permit extensions and remain in Canada while their application is being processed but have not yet been accounted for in IRCC administrative data.
• As a result, significant revisions have taken place, with the historical (Q3-2021 to Q3-2025) non-permanent resident (NPR) population data adjusted lower than previously estimated, while more recent readings (Q4-25 onward) have seen total numbers revised substantially higher. Given Canada’s reliance on immigration for population growth, total quarterly population estimates saw a similar pattern occur, with recent upward revisions erasing the trend of consistent quarterly population contractions (though a single, minor contraction was still recorded over the final months of 2025).
• Though upward revisions to recent NPR population statistics have been recorded across the board, no single category has influenced total population revisions more than work permit holders, with roughly 70–80% of total population adjustments over the last two years attributed to adjustments in the work permit holder population.
• Therefore, lagged quarterly official national estimates now stand at 41,798,407, an increase of 80,343 (0.2% q/q) vs the previous quarter (which, in turn, was revised to 41,718,064, approximately 0.7% greater than what was initially reported in June). The revisions leave the growth profile in modestly positive territory, with today’s figures putting population growth at 0.5% year-over-year. Today’s methodological revisions bring quarterly estimates closer to Labour Force Survey tracking, which historically has been tracking consistently higher than the national quarterly estimates.

Meanwhile, permanent resident admissions continue to do its thing

• Between January and July, Canada welcomed just over 222,000 new permanent residents, accounting for just under 60% of the annual target with over half of the year recorded. Of these new admissions, approximately 55% of those have gained PR status under the Economic category, currently tracking below the federal governments plan of 63% of total PR admissions for 2026 to be welcomed under this category.
• Interestingly, while the number of study permit holders has been shrinking rapidly since the onset of federal immigration plans, the number of study permit holders transitioning to PR has increased when compared to 2025. In July alone, roughly 2435 study permit holders received PR status, approximately 22% higher vs July 2025, and over 7% greater when comparing year-to-date admissions in 2026 to the corresponding time period a year prior.
• Total issuances, having started the year somewhat slowly, have seen a pickup in pace, particularly over the spring and summer months. As with previous years and targets, the federal government remains on track with overall PR admissions, and it seems unlikely they will significantly over or undershoot their 2026 goal.

New work permit arrivals have steadily picked up as the year has progressed, but the student numbers just aren’t there

• Slightly over 113,000 new work permit holders arrived in Canada between January and July, the vast majority arriving under the International Mobility Program. New work permit arrivals began to pick up pace in the early spring months and so far have managed to remain consistent, with approximately 50% of the federal government’s 2026 temporary work permit cap filled through seven months of the year.
• What was once a stream of new international students arriving in previous years can now be described as barely a trickle. With year-to-date (Jan–July) arrivals recorded at just over 28,200, approximately 18.2% of the 155,000 cap set in place for 2026. Even with the historic August bump in arrivals that comes with the onset of a new school year, total annual international student arrivals will come in far below what would have been anticipated when the current Immigration Levels Plan was crafted in late 2025, though early warning signs last year were there. Tightened immigration policies, higher rejection rates, weaker immigration incentives, and other countries representing viable alternatives to study and eventually settle in, have significantly impacted the number of international students
  coming to Canada.      

Given recent upward revisions to Canada’s total population, will there be any expectation for the federal government to double down on more restrictive policies in the upcoming Immigration Levels Plan?

• Fall approaches, and with that, the new Immigration Levels Plan outlining the federal government’s permanent and temporary resident admission targets for the following three years. Despite NPR and overall population levels adjusted higher than previously thought, will there be any emphasis on further restrictions on admissions?
• As a result of the revisions, the share of NPR to the total population now stands at 6.7%, an uptick vs the previous quarter’s reporting (6.2%). Despite the upward revisions, population growth has still declined significantly overall from its peak between 2023 and 2024, with year-over-year growth levels still below the pre-pandemic growth rates of around 1%. The overall level of NPRs may be higher than previously estimated, but current immigration policies mean their stock across major temporary categories has been shrinking consistently over recent quarters nonetheless, while new temporary arrival numbers are currently undershooting annual caps (particularly with international students), diminishing the anticipated offset to exits which would occur if total new arrivals were higher. Goals of slowing Canada’s population growth substantially, while reducing the NPR share of the total population to 5%, may take longer than what would have been anticipated in June, but achieving the 5% goal by the end of 2027 remains intact.
• With an economy gaining momentum and labour demands expected to increase nation-wide, it is reasonable to assume that, should there be any deviations from current immigration methods, focus would revolve around ensuring the new Immigration Levels Plan is calibrated to the government’s build agenda, rather than a dogmatic approach to caps and targets.

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