Population in Canada: A Monthly Snapshot

MUCH DONE, BUT MUCH TO STILL DO

Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.

As the country awaits a new Immigration Levels Plan on November 4th, data shows mixed results against last year’s targets

• There is no doubt immigration levels have declined significantly since the 2025–2027 Levels Plan was announced in October 2024, though not as quickly as the federal government had hoped. As expected, permanent resident admissions remain on track to reach their annual target. However, non-permanent residents, while declining in number, remain off track from the 5% target originally set for 2026—with the aim of reaching their goal deferred to 2027.
• Declines in the international student population, along with low student arrivals, has contributed materially to this slowdown. The temporary worker population, while witnessing a cooldown in new admissions and extensions, remains elevated and presents a key challenge in reaching the 5% target.

Population growth is currently running at a pre-pandemic pace, but still above the policy-targeted rate

• Last month’s Population Estimates report from Statistics Canada painted a mixed picture for the government’s ambitious Immigration Levels Plan. Although growth has certainly slowed over the last year, both quarterly annualized (0.5%) and year-over-year (0.9%) rates remain well above the target 0.2% contraction.

Permanent Resident (PR) numbers are so far consistent with last year’s plan, with much higher share of in-country approvals helping bring down non-permanent resident (NPR) numbers

• Meeting PR targets has never been a challenge for the federal government, and current trends suggest that will continue this year. The question for 2026 and beyond, however, centres on how targets will evolve with respect to provincial allocations, the composition of temporary residents transitioning to PR status, and the entry categories new admissions will fall under.
• While we are now far off from the explosive immigration growth of 2022–2024, shrinking admissions, combined with increased outflows, presents its own set of economic and social challenges, which will affect provinces and municipalities in different ways and could lead to revised PR admission allocations through categories such as the provincial nominee program.

NPR numbers have pivoted, but are still far from earlier-set targets; meanwhile, soft signs of a possible overcorrection towards the international student program

• The international student population began declining earlier than other NPR categories, with the first reversal recorded in the back-end of 2024. Since then, international student numbers have seen an average quarterly decline of 4.7%, with the latest (-5.6%) approximately 4.5 times greater than the corresponding drop in the number of work permit holders.
• How many students are actually leaving the country, versus how many are transitioning to a different visa status is difficult to identify. However, the general rarity for study permit holders to directly transition to permanent resident status, combined with additional restrictions on applying for (and maintaining) the Post Graduate Work Program (PGWP), suggests a greater emphasis on country exits than in the past.
• Despite its historic appeal as a top study destination, interest in studying in Canada has recently declined due to additional post-COVID measures and tighter immigration policies. The (more than) doubling of proof of funds required when moving to Canada ($22,895 in 2025, up from the historic $10,000), combined with work-hour limits, reduced PR pathways, and souring public sentiment on immigration, have seen prospective international students look elsewhere.
• Even with the introduction of low annual caps, international student admissions appear to be coming in below what was expected in last year’s Levels Plan. Universities echo this trend, with 93% of universities surveyed citing restrictive immigration policies and visa issues as key barriers to enrollment, while nearly half of respondents globally point to affordability concerns.¹
• Work permit holders, on the other hand, have been declining, but not on pace with overall targets and make up just over half of all non-permanent residents in the country.² Despite considerable media focus on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, these comprise less than 10% of the total NPR population at the end of 2024 and are unlikely to change the math materially.

Nevertheless, most forecasters assumed a slower implementation path

• Scotiabank Economics estimates the 15+ population to continue its steady decline, with year-over-year growth estimated to land at approximately 1.2% by the end of 2025.
• New temporary worker (154,515) and student (89,430) arrivals have come in far below targets and expectations between January–August, according to data released this week by IRCC. These lower arrival numbers suggest further population deceleration will continue, particularly as the summer months for international students, normally peak admission and arrival time, were relatively subdued when compared with prior years, while new work permit holder arrivals are also considerably lower compared to the past, with YTD arrivals in 2025 (January-August) averaging approximately 19,300 arrivals per month, compared to the roughly 37,600 average monthly arrivals over the same period in 2024.

Prime Minister Carney has indicated the new plan will be released as part of the federal budget on November 4th. We will be watching for one that continues this path of deceleration in population growth, but with policy tweaks that could double-down on the government’s broader growth agenda

• The budget is widely expected to set out a growth and investment agenda. It is a positive signal that the immigration plan is considered in this context and expect to see an enhanced focus on quality over quantity, with expected refinements in incentives to attract coveted skills in the build agenda, while also capitalizing on any vacuum in the wake of H-1B visa changes in the U.S.
• Ideally this plan would also provide greater clarity (and credibility) on overall population projections that would enable better forecasting, and more importantly, better planning by regions and municipalities.
• Modestly lower PR numbers may signal a recognition of a weakening economic outlook, though differing labour needs among provinces may lead to readjusted allocations in the upcoming plan, while a course-correction on NPR attrition could be a reality check as labour markets adjust and policy curtailments catch up.

¹ Study Portals The Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey, Jan–Mar 2025 intake.

² Excluding asylum claimants holding a work permit.