Population in Canada: The Road Ahead After the Slide Down

Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.

Statistics Canada’s latest Population Estimates posted a quarterly decline in the Canadian population, the first on record (when excluding COVID) and proof that the strict immigration policies announced last year have firmly taken hold

• Lagged quarterly official national estimates recorded population decline of slightly over 76,000, translating to an annualized quarterly contraction of 0.7%, with year-over-year growth slowing to approximately 0.2% as of October 1^st. Excluding the COVID-19 pandemic era, this represents the first quarterly decline in the overall population since current records began in 1947.
• Declines in the non-permanent resident (NPR) population largely account for this contraction, with the net NPRs declining by over 176,000 vs. the previous quarter, translating to a 5.8% drop in the overall NPR stock in the country.
• International students largely bore the brunt of NPR exits, witnessing a whopping 16.4% drop in their numbers vs. the previous quarter. Despite the late summer months normally representing a seasonal bump in the student population, as school Fall semesters begin in September, much lower-than-expected arrivals (well-below last year’s Levels Plan) have meant international student numbers over 2025 have taken a steep dive, rather than a gradual slide.
• There are a number of reasons for the sharp decline in new student arrivals: the introduction of temporary resident targets, increased costs of living, greater immigration oversight, tightened application rules, an uncertain path to permanent residency, other countries presenting themselves as attractive, long-term alternatives, etc. With these factors unlikely to change soon, declining student numbers can be expected to continue. With further quarterly recordings encompassing in-session semesters, however, questions will centre on whether the pace in international student declines will continue, or if we’ll begin to see a shoring up in their overall growth rate.

Population growth as suggested by the more timely Labour Force Survey data supports the slowing trend recorded in the quarterly Population Estimates report, though still running above the pace required for the government’s retrenchment ambitions

• Monthly 15+ year old population growth in November recorded 0.6% m/m annualized growth (SAAR), taking the three-month moving average down to 0.8% (SAAR), with year-over-year growth at 1.4%. Despite hefty declines in the international student population (the majority of whom are over 15 years old), population growth data from the Labour Force Survey continues to remain noticeably elevated from growth recorded in the Quarterly Population Estimates report.

Trend deceleration, as well as refreshed policies, suggest the slowdown will continue

• The annual permanent resident (PR) target is set to decline by 15,000, with the goal of admitting 380,000 new PRs in 2026 in the new Plan—an unchanged quota compared to the 2024 Levels Plan. Rather than continuing to decline by an additional 15,000 the following year, however, PR admissions are to remain fixed at 380,000 through 2028, with emphasis on economic immigration, as well as increased French-speaking PR admissions outside Quebec (an admission priority for those within the country).
• Meanwhile, new temporary resident targets (TR) are to decrease substantially over the next three years, with 385,000 TR arrivals planned for 2026 (down from 516,600 in last year’s Plan), then stabilizing at 370,000 each year for the following two years.
• International students are set to see their admission numbers decline again, with the 2026 cap at 155,000, followed by 150,000 in 2027 and 2028.

The federal government’s target of the NPR population representing 5% of Canada’s total population remains in the distance, though achieving it by end-2027 is realistic

• The share of NPRs of the total population stands at 6.8% as of October, with a shrinking international student population largely aiding this decline.
• Temporary work permit holders are witnessing a gradual decline in their overall numbers after plateauing in late 2024-early 2025. Other major categories have also seen consistent gradual declines in their overall numbers, though asylum claimants recorded a slight increase (1.5%) over the last three months and now exceed half a million.
• NPR numbers are clearly trending downward and reaching the 5% target in two years is much more achievable than by end-2026 and, at this rate, likely. The bigger question is whether this momentum holds, as economic realities across the country will require temporary workers, while relying on large student exits can’t be counted on permanently. It is also important to note that NPR exits include those transitioning from temporary to permanent residency. Hence, not all designated as an NPR outflow have left the country.

Permanent Resident numbers continue to converge towards target, while total temporary resident permit issuances reflect the decline in numbers seen in their new arrival counterparts

• With ten months of the year recorded, total PR admissions stand at 343,415, equating to approximately 87% of the year’s 395,000 target. With two months remaining, the federal government is well-placed to reach their goal.
• Total TR issuances have continued to post double-digit declines this year, even accounting for the busy summer months when new arrivals tend to bump up total permits issued. Issuances were well below corresponding seasons in prior years, with only the Temporary Foreign Worker program witnessing a minor year-to-year drop when compared to 2024 (among major streams).

Beyond strict headcounts, we will also be watching composition shifts as the new policies aim to shift towards higher economic categories, as well as a range of targeted programs, including high-talent and skill streams

• We are already seeing per-capita metrics start to tick back up as the population normalizes and newcomers already in the country continue the multi-year long integration process. These forces are likely to continue to partially offset other economic headwinds, including, to an extent, lower head counts.