BUT FIRST, ELECTIONS
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
With the federal general election right around the corner, population growth continues to trend at more sustainable (albeit still-elevated) levels
- The monthly 15+ population in March grew by 51,800, leaving 2025 YTD average growth at 1.8% (S.A.A.R.), with year-over-year growth at 2.9%, the first time the 15+ population has recorded yearly growth under 3.0% since the third quarter of 2023.
Elections often rewrite policies. While tightening immigration policy is the theme in both leading parties’ recently-released platforms, the Liberals appear to have adjusted to a more realistic pace aligned with current trends
- Continued monthly growth diminishes the federal government’s plan of negative population growth in 2025, although these goals were questionable when first announced in October 2024.
- Since last month’s publication, the Liberal Party under Mark Carney released an updated immigration framework under their election platform, with the goal of growing the permanent resident population at less than 1% of Canada’s population annually beyond 2027, while aiming to reach the 5% temporary resident-to-total-population target by the end of that same year—rather than 2026—a possible subtle admission that their initial target was ultimately an unrealistic one.
Temporary resident issuances are significantly lower when compared to the early months of 2024, including those seeking asylum in Canada, but the road to 5% is still a long one
- Temporary resident issuances across major IRCC streams have declined by double-digit figures in January and February when compared to the previous year, with the exception of those applying under the Temporary Foreign Worker program.
- Going forward, this publication will now record monthly asylum claims tracked by IRCC, along with their method of entry.
- While the asylum population pales in comparison to those in the work and study categories, record claimant growth in 2024, coupled with domestic migration policies in the United States, could further complicate the federal government’s plan to reach their 5% temporary resident target, irrespective of whether their target year is 2026 or 2027.
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