AS YOU WERE
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
A Liberal victory in last month’s federal election suggests little deviation from current major targets, although a longer (and frankly more realistic) timeline will be applied
- As of this report’s publication date, no major new announcements or change of plans have been announced by the Carney administration when it comes to general permanent and temporary resident admission targets, suggesting the 2025–2027 plans announced at the end of October 2024 will continue to be the plan in effect.
- As previously mentioned, one notable (yet subtle) announcement in the Liberal Party’s election platform was the desire to hit the 5% temporary resident-to-total-population target by the end of 2027, a year longer than stated in the original 2024 plan, a possible admission that the initial 2026 goal was likely unachievable.
Monthly population growth has ticked up in recent months. While that used to be the norm, it is now more of an exception
- The monthly 15+ population in April grew by approximately 1.9% (S.A.A.R.), slightly higher than March’s 1.8% m/m growth (S.A.A.R.) and the second month in a row during 2025 where monthly growth patterns witnessed an increase.
- This update is likely to be a brief bump in an otherwise general decline, as the federal government’s immigration policy continues to work its way through the population. While this current hover around 1.8% growth is a far cry from the 4.0% monthly growth (S.A.A.R.) we were seeing as recently as last summer, it can be considered elevated when compared to pre-pandemic trends.
- A positive monthly growth trend still close to 2.0% as we approach the halfway point of 2025 seriously starts to erode the government’s ambitious (and always unlikely) plan of shrinking the overall population this year by 0.2%.
No temporary reprieve for temporaries
- With a quarter of the year recorded, temporary visa issuances are down by double digits when compared to the same time period in 2024. Most notable are International Mobility Program permits (the largest share of temporary visa issuances among major streams, as well as a significant population of work permit holders in Canada), which has seen a drop in issuances by almost a quarter vs. 2024.
- Study permits have continued to see substantial declines, with issuances vs. 2024 down by over 20% as we begin to approach the summer months, when issuances historically reach their annual peak.
- While Temporary Foreign Worker Permit issuances are up slightly (4.6%), this is likely a seasonal effect, given many of these issuances are geared towards those working in the agricultural industry during harvesting season, or in the foodstuff and fishery industries, which were previously granted exemptions when rules on TWFP issuances were tightened.
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