Population in Canada: Peaks and Valleys

This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.

 Canada’s population trends are firmly in the negative

• Lagged quarterly official national estimates recorded a total population contraction of 55,025 (-0.1% q/q) for the quarter ending April 1^st, 2026—a third consecutive decline in the total population—albeit the slowest of the three recordings so far, and a slight comedown after a quarterly contraction of approximately 0.25% in the previous quarter.
• Similar to the previous quarter, contributions to Canada’s overall population decline were evenly shared between temporary study and work permit holders, with the former’s population shrinking by 5.7% between January–April, and the latter’s following suit at –5.8%. Notable drops once again (and the main sources of Canada’s population decline), but markedly slower than January’s recordings, despite new intake numbers for both international students and workers currently coming under the Federal government’s 2026 target (further details below).
• As a result, the population of non-permanent residents (NPRs) as a share of the total population now stands at 6.2%, with international students comprising just 1.5% of the population, while temporary work permit holders make up 3.1%. While the decline in the number of temporary work permit holders has been gradual since the introduction of annual temporary permit holder arrival caps, the pace at which the international student population has declined has been rapid, to say the least. After peaking at over a million in mid-2024 (study + study and work permit holders), today’s total stock stands at just under 620,000, a result of effective immigration restrictions and much lower than anticipated international student arrivals.

Permanent residents—a bit behind on quantity, on pace with quality

• Between January and April, Canada has welcomed just under 113,000 new permanent residents, accounting for approximately 30% of the 2026 PR target, slightly under the pace needed to reach 380,000 new additions by the end of the year, though still within range to more than make up for the lag as the year progresses.
  
• Of the roughly 113,000 new admissions, approximately 58% of those are former temporary residents who have made the transition to permanent residency, a noticeable increase in the share compared to previous years, which has so-far remained consistent since the implementation of the new Immigration Levels Plan. In addition, close to 60% of total PR admissions have fallen under the Economic category.
• While Ontario (as expected) holds the largest share of total Economic category PR admissions (slightly over one third of this category admitted this year), remaining provinces have not seen substantial rises or declines of Economic PRs compared to last year’s intake (Jan–Apr. comparison). Additionally, 7000 of the planned 20,000 applicants under the ­In-Canada Workers Initiative (an accelerated PR program for temporary residents living in smaller Canadian communities and working in in-demand sectors) have so far been granted PR status this year, constituting 35% of the 2026 target. An additional 13,000 are expected to be granted PR status under this plan in 2027.

Temporary residents—have Canada’s tight immigration controls dampened international appeal?

• New temporary work permit arrivals in both the Temporary Foreign Work and International Mobility Program categories have seen recent upticks in March and April, partially offsetting what was initially a very subdued start to the year. As a result, approximately 25% of the Federal government’s 230,000 cap on new temporary worker arrivals has been reached through April.
• Meanwhile, new student arrivals still show virtually no sign of picking up pace and generating a trend which would bring intake numbers even remotely close to the 155,000 cap set for the year. Standing at 16,115 year-to-date, new student arrivals are roughly 42% lower compared to the same period a year prior, and 84% lower vs. January–April 2024.
• Overall, while the pace of temporary resident exits may satisfy the Federal government when it comes to shrinking the total population to numbers in-line with their stated objectives (while also aiding in reaching their 5% temporary resident-to-total population share by 2027), the lack of new temporary workers and students could lead to a population overcorrection in the near future. Should expected arrival flows fail to materialize as the year progresses (particularly during the summer months, where new student arrivals historically peak), regional gaps in the labour force could appear and grow, while colleges and universities, still reeling significantly from lost international student tuition, could see further crunches, despite recent provincial pivots and initiatives.
• While addressing current backlogs will no doubt help with intake flows, the lack of new arrivals could point toward an immigration system which is perhaps going a step further than initially planned, and diminishing Canada’s appeal when prospective immigrants are deciding where to work or study. Not only are pathways to temporary immigration much more restrictive (along with higher financial and non-financial entry requirements), but reduced pathways to permanent residency (and ultimately citizenship), combined with the increased likelihood of not having your study or work visa renewed at the end of your term, can significantly diminish one’s incentive for moving to Canada in the first place. For a country where virtually the entirety of population growth comes from immigration, these can no doubt lead to significant structural economic issues in the long-run. 

Featured Chart