First-round Presidential election: results
Economic programs—they will change in the coming weeks
Senate composition: right-wing parties get historic number of senators
Senate composition: pre-election
Lower-House composition: status quo
Lower-House composition: pre-election
PARISI: Where are Parisi votes going in the runoff?
Parisi’s economic program
- Keep pension-fund system with minor changes
- Increase tax revenue, eliminating exceptions and evasion
- Lower VAT on specific items (medicines, among others)
- Lower gasoline taxes
- Royalties on the mining sector
Six deputies from Parisi’s party
- Not very well known
- They seem to be more center-right that center-left
- Economic liberals, but conservative on values
- One was former deputy of a right-wing party (RN)
Fourth withdrawal of pension funds should be a reality soon
- Boric wants a new withdrawal
- Key to get more votes for the run-off
MEO and Provoste voters not guaranteed for Boric
- In previous election, some of MEO’s voters went to Piñera
- President of CD has not taken a decision to support Boric
Constitutional process
- Referendum by July 2022: approve or reject?
- Low probability of changes in current conditions
- Assembly will have to move carefully with a center-right congress
Boric versus Kast: result will be tight
- No more than 100k-vote difference in the second round
- Next President (Boric or Kast): limited scope to act
Market implications
- CLP, rates, and equities: positive short-run impact
- But also (mild) positive medium-term effects
- Monetary policy implications
- Fiscal sustainability
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