Direct loans grew by around 8.7% y/y in July, above the 8.3% y/y recorded in June, extending the uptrend observed since October 2021. Lending continues to accelerate, supported by the resilience of economic activity, which posted cumulative growth of 3.1% during 1H26. Business loans expanded by approximately 7.5% y/y (table 1), sustaining a stronger pace than in 2Q26 and maintaining their positive trend. Meanwhile, household loans accelerated to nearly 10.5% y/y, remaining above their average pace.
Business loans continued to grow at a healthy rate, showing an improvement in annual terms (chart 1), broadly consistent with the expansion in private investment, which grew 17.6% during 2Q26. July recorded higher loan flows compared to June, mainly driven by small business loans. Most lending portfolios showed a stronger performance, with the exception of corporate loans, whose growth eased from 5.9% y/y in June to 5.1% y/y in July.
Within the business segment, large business loans grew by 4.5% y/y in July, while medium business loans posted a stronger performance than in the previous month, accelerating from 11.7% y/y to 13.1% y/y. Growth in small business loans remained close to 13.0% y/y. In contrast, the micro business loans portfolio remained in negative territory, although it continued to recover, improving from -10.6% y/y in June to -10.0% y/y in July.
Household loans continued to show strong momentum, expanding by nearly 10.5% y/y (chart 2). The segment maintains a solid upward trend, supported by healthy loan flows. Mortgages remained stable, growing at around 7.7% annually and recording flows broadly in line with the annual average.
Consumer loans expanded by more than 13.0% y/y in July, up from 12.0% y/y in June, supported by the strength of private consumption, which likely grew 3.7% during 2Q26. In addition, loan flows remained robust throughout the month, likely reflecting the positive performance of formal employment and persistently low delinquency rates.
Finally, we expect direct loans to continue showing solid momentum over the coming months. By the end of 2026, we forecast direct loan growth of around 8.0% y/y. Accordingly, business loans are expected to remain close to 7.0% y/y, while the favourable performance of domestic demand should continue to support household loans, which we project to grow at around 9.0% y/y by year-end.
—Grecia Fajardo
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instrument, nor shall this report be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “call to action” or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. Scotiabank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed this report and may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this report.
Scotiabank, its affiliates and any of their respective officers, directors and employees may from time to time take positions in currencies, act as managers, co-managers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities or related derivatives. As a result of these actions, Scotiabank may receive remuneration. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. Officers, directors and employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations.
Any securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Scotiabank recommends that investors independently evaluate any issuer and security discussed in this report, and consult with any advisors they deem necessary prior to making any investment.
This report and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank.
™ Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable.
Scotiabank, together with “Global Banking and Markets”, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including; Scotiabank Europe plc; Scotiabank (Ireland) Designated Activity Company; Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. – all members of the Scotiabank group and authorized users of the Scotiabank mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability and is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the UK Prudential Regulation Authority.
Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, and Scotia Inverlat Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities.
Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.