- Peru: Housing market could reach record sales levels in 2026
We expect Peru’s housing market to expand at a double-digit pace in 2026, outperforming the broader construction sector, which is forecast to grow by around 9.4%. The outlook is underpinned by sustained momentum in mortgage loans, which are poised to reach an all-time high, supported by stronger new home sales in Lima and a recovery in government-backed social housing lending.
The sector’s momentum has been underpinned by a gradual decline in mortgage rates, which has lowered monthly payments and improved housing affordability. The easing in borrowing costs has tracked the decline in Peru’s 10-year local-currency sovereign bond yield, a key benchmark for long-term lending rates. Meanwhile, broadly stable construction material costs—up just 1.8% in H1-26—have encouraged new project launches. The Peruvian sol’s recent appreciation against the U.S. dollar has provided an additional tailwind by reducing the local-currency equivalent of home prices, as most residential properties are quoted in dollars. Improving formal employment and household incomes have also helped bolster homebuying demand.
By segment, we forecast mortgage loans to rise by around 10% in 2026 to more than 45,000 loans, up from 41,057 in 2025. This would mark a third consecutive year of growth and surpass the previous record of 43,882 loans set in 2021.
The expansion would be driven by new home sales in Lima, which we expect to increase by around 15% y/y to more than 28,000 units, based on data from CODIP (Confederación de Desarrolladores Inmobiliarios del Perú). Government-backed housing lending is also poised for a modest recovery, with disbursements under the Nuevo Crédito Mivivienda program expected to edge above the 9,157 loans granted in 2025. Lending under the program fell 2% last year to its lowest annual level since 2020.
Performance during H1-26
New mortgage loans reached 22,743 loans in H1-26 (chart 1), up nearly 12% y/y, according to the SBS (Superintendencia de Banca y Seguros). The first half reading surpassed the previous half-year record of 21,987 loans set in 2H21. Monthly loans also climbed in March 2026 to their highest level since March 2021, excluding the temporary post-pandemic rebound recorded in July 2020.
Meanwhile, new home sales in Metropolitan Lima reached 15,477 units in 1H26, up 26% y/y, according to CODIP. The increase was underpinned by lower borrowing costs, with mortgage rates standing at around 7.8% at end-July, boosting housing affordability (chart 2). Additional tailwinds included broadly stable home prices—residential property prices rose just 1.1% y/y in Q1-26, according to the BCRP (Banco Central de Reserva)—the Peruvian sol’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar and improving labour-market conditions, particularly in the private sector.
The recovery in government-backed housing lending provided additional support to the sector. Combined disbursements under the Mivivienda and CRC programs reached 4,399 loans in H1-26, up 5% y/y. Following three consecutive annual declines, we expect social housing lending to return to growth in 2026, assuming broad economic policy continuity after the elections and no major regulatory changes affecting the housing market.
—Carlos Asmat
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