- Mexico: In April, monthly GDP recorded an annual contraction of -1.5%, despite showing a monthly increase
- Colombia: In April, imports fell for the first time in nine months
MEXICO: IN APRIL, MONTHLY GDP RECORDED AN ANNUAL CONTRACTION OF -1.5%, DESPITE SHOWING A MONTHLY INCREASE
In April, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE, chart 1) showed an annual decline of -1.5%, compared to the 2.5% increase in March, owing to a sharp drop in construction (-6.8%), and in mining (-7.7%). Services also showed a slowdown, falling from 2.6% to -0.4%, with wholesale trade decreasing by -8.1% and retail trade slowing to 1.7%. The strongest growth was observed in business support services, with an increase of 8.7%. Primary activities rose by 3.5% (9.6% previously).
In seasonally adjusted monthly terms, the IGAE increased by 0.5%. Primary activities fell by -3.7%, industry declined by 0.1%, and services rose by 0.9%. The figure adjusted for working days increased by 1.2% y/y. Lastly, the index recorded a modest increase of just 0.1% for the January–April period.
The decline in manufacturing could be due to lower production of textiles and apparel, which have been trending downward in recent months, as well as a possible contraction in the lumber industry, petroleum derivatives, non-metallic minerals, and a decrease in machinery and equipment production, likely driven by reduced tariff pressures on Mexico.
—Rodolfo Mitchell, Brian Pérez & Miguel Saldaña
COLOMBIA: IN APRIL, IMPORTS FELL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NINE MONTHS
On Friday, June 20th, DANE published import data for April 2025. Imports reached US$5.79 bn CIF (chart 2). Specifically, imports decreased 0.8% y/y, interrupting the positive trend recorded in the previous nine months. The annual decline is explained by a high statistical base, given that in April 2024, imports grew by 18.1% y/y. Imports of manufactured goods contributed the most to the negative variation, subtracting -1.3 p.p.
Imports continue to reflect a recovery in domestic demand despite the overall decline. Imports of consumer goods increased by 8.7% y/y, reflecting higher demand for durable goods, especially vehicles. This comes amid an 11.4% y/y increase in total retail sales in April and a 25.4% y/y increase in vehicle sales.
A lower number of working days in April may have influenced the drop in imports. Imports of raw materials and capital goods registered declines of -3.0% y/y and -4.8% y/y, respectively, reflecting lower industrial sector activity due to fewer working days amid Easter, which typically impact sector growth. On the other hand, imports from the U.S. decreased by -4.9% y/y in April, although they have increased 3.4% up to date. Meanwhile, imports from China increased by 18.1% in April, and have grown 23.5% y/y up to date.
The trade balance stood at US$1.3 bn, widening the deficit by 20.5% compared to April 2024 (US$1.1 bn) (chart 3). In April, exports fell by -6.5% y/y, a larger decline than observed in imports, primarily due to a drop in oil exports, which has been affected by international prices.
Key highlights of April
- Consumer imports maintained positive momentum. In April, consumer imports grew by 8.7% y/y, contributing 2.0 p.p to the total result. Imports of non-durable goods fell -2.9% y/y, mainly due to lower imports of pharmaceutical products, while beverage imports registered a 103.9% y/y increase. Imports of durable consumer goods increased 27.6% y/y, with a 49.1% y/y increase in vehicle imports and a 42.1% increase in household goods.
- Imports of raw materials fell -3.0% y/y. Raw material imports fell mainly due to the industrial sector, which fell -4.4% y/y. Fuel imports decreased -0.3% y/y, due to the decrease in gas imports. Meanwhile, on the positive side, imports of materials for the agricultural sector increased by 1.5% y/y.
- Imports of capital goods fell -4.9% y/y. Imports of construction materials fell -1.0% y/y. In the industrial sector (chart 4), imports of capital goods fell -2.2% y/y, due to lower imports of machinery and office equipment, while imports of transportation equipment fell -15.6% y/y. On the positive side, imports of capital goods for agriculture increased 30.7% y/y, mainly due to tool components and transportation equipment.
—Daniela Silva
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