- Peru: Cement sales grew for the second consecutive month in June
In June, cement sales in Peru experienced growth for the second consecutive month. Local sales increased by 5.7% y/y, mirroring the growth recorded in May (chart 1). In terms of volume, sales reached 984,000 tons, aligning with our expectations and representing the third-highest monthly volume during the first half of 2025, according to the Association of Cement Producers (Asociacion de Productores de Cemento-ASOCEM). The primary driver of this increase was higher demand from the self-build segment, which accounts for 70% of total cement consumption. This surge is linked to a gradual recovery in formal private employment and the relative stability of construction material prices. Although there was a slight rise in the average price of cement in Metropolitan Lima in June (30.51 soles per bag) compared to May, this price remains lower than at the end of 2024 (30.60 soles per bag), according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informatica-INEI).
ASOCEM reports that cement consumption during the first 1H25 rose by 3.1%, primarily driven by increased demand from the self-build segment. This is reflected in the recovery trend of cement consumption in recent months, especially in central and northern regions of the country (chart 2). Based on INEI figures, we estimate that cement consumption in the northern region grew by 6% between January and May. Another indicator of robust performance in the self-construction segment is the sale of construction bars, which saw a 12% increase from January to May compared to the same period last year, according to INEI statistics. This growth was likely fueled by heightened demand for public sector projects, as the physical progress of such projects—a proxy for public works—rose by 6.7% in May, according to INEI. Furthermore, the real estate sector, particularly in Lima, experienced increased demand for cement, with new mortgage lending rising by 33% from January to May this year compared to the same period in 2024, according to SBS (Superintendencia de Banca y Seguros).
We anticipate that cement consumption will continue to grow in July at a rate like that of June, expecting the volume sold could surpass 1 million tons. It's worth noting the base effect, as cement consumption in July 2024 was lower than in the previous year. Given the results from the first half of 2025, we maintain a positive outlook for the year, consistent with our projection of 4% growth in the construction sector, which we expect to exceed the modest growth observed in 2024.
—Carlos Asmat
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instrument, nor shall this report be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “call to action” or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. Scotiabank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed this report and may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this report.
Scotiabank, its affiliates and any of their respective officers, directors and employees may from time to time take positions in currencies, act as managers, co-managers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities or related derivatives. As a result of these actions, Scotiabank may receive remuneration. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. Officers, directors and employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations.
Any securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Scotiabank recommends that investors independently evaluate any issuer and security discussed in this report, and consult with any advisors they deem necessary prior to making any investment.
This report and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank.
™ Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable.
Scotiabank, together with “Global Banking and Markets”, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including; Scotiabank Europe plc; Scotiabank (Ireland) Designated Activity Company; Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. – all members of the Scotiabank group and authorized users of the Scotiabank mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability and is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the UK Prudential Regulation Authority.
Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, and Scotia Inverlat Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities.
Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.