- Peru: New car sales reach record high in 1H25
New car sales surpassed 100,000 units in 1H25, marking the highest half-year sales figure in history (chart 1). This level of sales surpassed the peak volume recorded in 1H13. In addition, the sector has experienced consistent growth since September 2024, achieving ten consecutive months of year on year (YoY) increases until June this year. The sales volume exceeded our expectations, likely due to improvements in real income among the population, driven by recent increases in formal employment and a decrease in inflationary pressures. Additionally, there has been a sustained demand for light vehicles, aided by a greater availability of models—particularly those from Chinese manufacturers—better credit conditions, and a recent decline in the sol-dollar exchange rate. This is further supported by rising demand for heavy-duty vehicles from private companies and increased requests for buses from private transportation firms (chart 2).
We anticipate that the sector will grow by over 10% in 2025, surpassing our earlier projections for the year and outpacing the expected growth for the commerce sector (+3.2%). As a result of these factors, we expect sales to continue their upward trajectory until mid-August, despite experiencing negative annual sales variations between May and August 2024. Growth is likely to slow in the last quarter of the year, partly due to the incoming election season.
Our projections for the end of 2025 will be based on improvements in formal employment within the private sector, which drive light vehicle purchases, as well as positive business expectations linked to expected advancements in private investment, influencing the purchase of heavy vehicles. Additional factors supporting this outlook include relative price stability, which enhances real incomes; a lower sol-dollar exchange rate, reducing the average cost of imported cars—recently observed; favourable vehicle financing conditions with lower credit rates; and increased model diversity, especially among light vehicles. However, some challenges could hinder the sector’s growth: the proximity of the 2026 elections may dampen sales momentum in the latter months of 2025, and a new global trade landscape due to changes in tariff policies could lead to fluctuations in the supply chain, thereby affecting the average price of vehicles based on their country of origin.
1H25 NEW VEHICLE SALES
According to the Peruvian Automotive Association (AAP), new car sales in 1H25 reached 100,073 units, marking an 18% increase compared to the same period last year, exceeding the maximum reached in 1H13. This figure represents the highest sales in history. In terms of segment performance, light vehicle sales totaled 88,783 units, reflecting the highest figures in recent years with a growth rate of nearly 18%. Heavy-duty vehicle sales also showed strong performance, with 11,290 units sold, the highest since 1H13, achieving a remarkable 28% increase during this period. The surge in light vehicle sales can be attributed to increased demand, driven by improved household purchasing power and a gradual recovery in formal job creation, which has been on the rise since April 2024, in line with better private investment outcomes. Notably, this half-year sales figure is the highest ever recorded.
Breaking it down by category, sales of SUVs (+24%) stood out, reflecting a growing preference for larger vehicles for short trips. Similarly, sales of pickup trucks increased by 28%, particularly in the mining and construction sectors. Over recent years, consumer preferences have shifted significantly, with demand for SUVs now surpassing that for traditional cars. In 2018, SUV sales accounted for 31% of total light vehicle sales, a figure projected to rise to 46% by the end of 2024. Conversely, car sales, which constituted 41% of total sales in 2018, have dropped to just 21% by 2024.
Heavy-duty vehicle sales also experienced an impressive 28% increase in the 1H25, driven by strong demand for trucks (particularly heavy-duty trucks) and buses, which reached their highest sales since the 1H19. Specifically, truck sales rose by 26%, fueled by operational needs within private companies in the mining, manufacturing, and construction sectors, reflecting the ongoing trend of increased private investment. Additionally, bus sales surged by 44%, largely due to rising orders from companies involved in personnel transport and interprovincial travel.
—Carlos Asmat
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This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instrument, nor shall this report be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “call to action” or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. Scotiabank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed this report and may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this report.
Scotiabank, its affiliates and any of their respective officers, directors and employees may from time to time take positions in currencies, act as managers, co-managers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities or related derivatives. As a result of these actions, Scotiabank may receive remuneration. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. Officers, directors and employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations.
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Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.