- Colombia: Citi Colombia Survey for August—Inflation views increased, while analyst consensus points to rate stability in September
August’s Citi survey was published on Thursday, August 21st. BanRep uses this survey as one of its indicators for inflation expectations, the monetary policy rate, GDP, and the Colombian peso.
Highlights:
- GDP growth expectations remain stable. For 2025, the average GDP growth forecast sits at 2.59%, the same level as the previous survey. For 2026, the expectation is 2.88%, a drop of 2bps. Expectations suggest that Colombia will continue a path of recovery toward closing the output gap. So far this year the economy has grown 2.4%, driven mainly by momentum in household consumption.
- Inflation expectations increased. Inflation for the end of 2025 is expected to be 4.94%, 16bps higher than the previous survey. Likewise, for 2026, the average expectation increased 17bps to 3.94%. In July, inflation showed an upward surprise, breaking the two-month downtrend, mainly due to an increase in food prices; now, the average analysts’ expectation points to an additional rebound in August, with an expectation of 0.19% m/m, bringing the annual inflation rate from 4.90% in July to 5.10%.
- The average expectation of respondents is lower than the inflation path projected by Scotiabank Colpatria. We forecast inflation for August at 0.23% month-over-month and 5.14% year-over-year. By the end of 2025, we project an annual inflation rate of 5.21%. Looking ahead to 2026, the increase in the minimum wage presents a significant risk. A rise substantially above the technical guideline—defined as inflation plus productivity—could further delay convergence toward the central bank’s target range of 2% to 4%. Our current projection for inflation at end-2026 is 3.98% year-over-year, assuming a minimum wage increase of approximately 7%.
- Monetary Policy: the economist consensus expects the rate to remain stable at 9.25% at the September 30th meeting. Three of the twenty-six respondents expect a 25bps cut. BanRep is expected to maintain a cautious approach amid a complex fiscal scenario, high inflation expectations, and uncertainty about the 2026 wage increase. For December 2025, the expectation is 9.00%, with a range between 8.75% and 9.25%, while for December 2026, it is 7.75%, with a range between 7.00% and 9.00%. At Scotiabank Colpatria, the monetary policy rate is expected to close at 9.25% in 2025 and 7.50% in 2026 (chart 1).
- Finally, the economist consensus expects the exchange rate to average 4,134 pesos at the end of the year and 4,121 pesos at the end of 2026. Scotiabank Colpatria’s projections suggest an exchange rate of 4,249 pesos in 2025 and 4,200 pesos in 2026.
—Jackeline Piraján & Daniela Silva
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instrument, nor shall this report be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “call to action” or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. Scotiabank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed this report and may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this report.
Scotiabank, its affiliates and any of their respective officers, directors and employees may from time to time take positions in currencies, act as managers, co-managers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities or related derivatives. As a result of these actions, Scotiabank may receive remuneration. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. Officers, directors and employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations.
Any securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Scotiabank recommends that investors independently evaluate any issuer and security discussed in this report, and consult with any advisors they deem necessary prior to making any investment.
This report and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank.
™ Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable.
Scotiabank, together with “Global Banking and Markets”, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including; Scotiabank Europe plc; Scotiabank (Ireland) Designated Activity Company; Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. – all members of the Scotiabank group and authorized users of the Scotiabank mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability and is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the UK Prudential Regulation Authority.
Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, and Scotia Inverlat Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities.
Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.