CANADA HOUSING MARKET: EXISTING HOME SALES PROBABLY ON A RECOVERY PATH, BUT NATIONAL MARKET CONDITIONS STILL SOFT
SUMMARY
Housing sales (in units) increased nationally for a third consecutive month in June while new listings declined, thereby tightening market conditions modestly from May to June according to the sales-to-new listings ratio. The national (all-markets) MLS HPI stayed flat from May to June; the first time it did not post a monthly decline since February 2025.
National housing (unit) sales increased 0.5% (sa) from May to June, a third consecutive monthly rise. Sales rose by a cumulative 7% (from sa figures) over this 3-month period but, in June 2026, were still 12% (sa) below their November 2024 level, as global trade tensions started rising shortly after the U.S. elections. From May to June, nearly 60% of the local markets we track posted a rise in their sales, with the strongest ones observed for Sudbury (21.2%), Peterborough (14.8%) and Kingston (13.1%).
National new listings declined by 1.3% (sa) from May to June, still following their (mild) downward trend that started in September 2025. Sharpest monthly declines in this indicator were observed for St. John’s (NL; -17.5%), Sudbury (-10.3%) and Victoria (-8.5%). New listings declined by 1.4% (nsa) over the 12-month period ending with June 2026.
The national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened further from May to June, edging up 0.9 percentage point to 50.2%, which is still in the lower half of our estimated range for balanced conditions, where it had been trending since Spring 2022. Since the same month in 2025, this ratio tightened by 1 percentage point, but with only about 45% of tracked market also showing a tightening.
Months of inventory, the other indicator of market conditions we track, stayed constant from May to June at 4.8, below its estimated pre-pandemic long-term average (of 5.2 months). As for several months now, this indicator was below its long-term average in every province except in British Columbia and Ontario.
The national (all markets) MLS House Price Index (HPI) stayed flat from May to June. Over this period, declines for 1-storey and townhouse units (-0.2% m/m in each case; sa figures) were offset by increases for apartments (+0.7%; its first monthly rise since Summer 2023) and 2-storey units (+0.1%). From June 2025 to June 2026, the national MLS HPI declined by 3.6% (nsa) with all unit types contributing to this decline.
IMPLICATIONS
Good news again in June as national housing resales continued their rise that started in April. This development is in line with our expectations of an improvement in housing demand over our forecast horizon with population growth normalizing and economic and income conditions firming up. The other good news—but very light—is that the national MLS HPI was flat in June, after having posted monthly declines every month since February 2025. This performance also seems to be shared by several local markets as shown by the share of them having reported a decline in their MLS HPI in each of the last 3 months that is now approaching its longer-term historical average after having significantly exceeding it until recently (chart 1). However, too soon to claim a recovery in the national MLS HPI is in sight as reflected by the still low share of these local markets that have posted an increase for this indicator in each of the last 3 months (chart 2).
These MLS HPI developments are consistent with our view that the expected sustained recovery in housing demand will put upward pressures on prices, but they will be muted by firm housing supply over our forecast horizon. As mentioned in our previous reports, both the sales-to-new listings ratio and the months-of-inventory indicators provide a partial view of housing supply as they do not fully account for the fact that a significant share of housing demand is satisfied by new units, and that this share rose in recent years with housing starts significantly above their pre-pandemic historical average. Indeed, the sharp rise in recently completed and unabsorbed units shown in previous reports is an illustration that current demand conditions are too weak to absorb newly completed units at a normal pace. For this reason, until housing demand firms up significantly, upward movements in house prices are expected to be modest over our forecast horizon to 2027.
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instrument, nor shall this report be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “call to action” or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. Scotiabank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed this report and may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this report.
Scotiabank, its affiliates and any of their respective officers, directors and employees may from time to time take positions in currencies, act as managers, co-managers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities or related derivatives. As a result of these actions, Scotiabank may receive remuneration. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. Officers, directors and employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations.
Any securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Scotiabank recommends that investors independently evaluate any issuer and security discussed in this report, and consult with any advisors they deem necessary prior to making any investment.
This report and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank.
™ Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable.
Scotiabank, together with “Global Banking and Markets”, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including; Scotiabank Europe plc; Scotiabank (Ireland) Designated Activity Company; Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. – all members of the Scotiabank group and authorized users of the Scotiabank mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability and is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the UK Prudential Regulation Authority.
Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, and Scotia Inverlat Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities.
Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.