- Mexico: Investment continues to decline, with a drop of -5.8% in October, while consumption reaches its highest level since July 2024
In October, gross fixed investment moderated its annual decline, moving from -6.7% to -5.8% y/y, marking fourteen consecutive months in negative territory (charts 1 and 2). Breaking it down, machinery and equipment deepened its contraction, falling from -2.4% to -10.5%, and accumulating ten straight months of decreases, with widespread drops within the category (-12.0% domestic and -12.5% imported). Construction barely slipped by -0.7% this month compared to -10.6% in the previous one, maintaining the negative trend observed since August 2024. Within the sector, residential construction grew by 3.1%, while non-residential fell -12.2%. Meanwhile, private investment decreased -2.8% and public investment -19.8%. For the January–October period, investment shows an overall decline of -7.4%. If uncertainty persists both domestically and internationally, unfavourable figures for investment are likely to continue.
Also in October, private consumption accelerated on an annual basis, from 3.6% to 4.2%, driven by stronger gains in both services and goods (chart 3). In particular, imported goods continue to lead, now posting an increase of 19.9% (vs. 14.8% previously), with growth across both durable and non-durable subcomponents, although semi-durable imported goods registered a decline. Meanwhile, domestic goods rose 1.3% (vs. 1.6% previously), supported by a 2.3% increase in non-durable goods, which more than offset drops in durable and semi-durable goods of -3.2% and -4.8%, respectively. Additionally, services accelerated to 2.3% from 1.5% previously. As a result, private consumption shows growth of just 0.5% in the first ten months of the year, with a moderate outlook due to slow job creation. On a seasonally adjusted monthly comparison, consumption grew 0.8%, driven by a sharp rebound in imported goods (6.6%) and a modest increase in services (0.4%), which offset a decline in domestic goods (-0.2%).
—Rodolfo Mitchell, Miguel Saldaña & Martha Cordova
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