Building Canada Initiatives: Year One Progress Report — The Shovels Are Calling

Meeting the moment. Geopolitical, geoeconomic, and technological forces have unfolded at an especially rapid and head-spinning pace in recent years. The confluence of events is such that Canada has become subject to previously unthinkable shocks, such as global fragmentation, trade wars, sovereignty threats, and market uncertainties. As is often the case, where there are difficulties there are also often opportunities and the country has an abundance of positive attributes to draw upon. This report seeks to make sense of Canada’s efforts to steady itself and pursue new growth initiatives that can help it navigate turbulent waters and foster enhanced economic strength, prosperity, and security in the 21st century.

Year one progress report. The Building Canada Act (BCA) contained within the One Canadian Economy Act (OCEA) was enacted on June 26, 2025, while the Major Projects Office (MPO) was established in Calgary on August 29, 2025, and it announced its initial tranche of Major Projects and Transformative Strategies on September 11, 2025. There are now 18 Major Projects and nine Transformative Strategies on the books. This report seeks to provide a unique analysis of Canada’s broader project inventory and MPO-referred initiatives and looks at how to establish a baseline and framework of indicators to measure progress; furthermore, we evaluate execution implications as the pursuit of growth is renewed.

A data-driven assessment approach. Common marketplace questions and comments about Building Canada initiatives range from “will this happen” to “how will it happen” to “we need to see shovels in the ground before we will invest.” It is crucial to note that shovels in the ground are lagged indicators, not starting guns, which makes the analysis of progress a more nuanced and dynamic task. We outline a data-driven framing, which filters evidence for indicators as follows: (1) enabling conditions, (2) sentiment and intent, (3) capital flows, (4) real activity, and (5) the major project ledger.

Observations from our first read of the early indicators are positive. As the adages go, “Canada has what the world wants” and “the world needs more Canada.” Subsequent to the August breakdown in trade negotiations with the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney highlighted that foreign direct investment (FDI) in Canada is at its highest level in two decades, running at twice the rate of the nearest G7 competitor, and it now ranks as the most attractive country in the world for infrastructure investment (per the Global Infrastructure Investor Association). We believe the early indicators show positive signs and reason for optimism, albeit tempered by the country’s 2015-2025 track record, which proved difficult for many project-development initiatives.

A bottom-up evaluation of Canada’s project inventory – the numbers are large. We have comprehensively analyzed the inventory of Major Projects in Canada, which include $637 billion in the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) Major Energy and Natural Resources Projects dataset, $341 billion in the ReNew Canada Top100 Infrastructure Projects 2026 (ReNew) dataset, and $342 billion in the MPO’s Major Projects and Transformative Strategies (the official MPO figure is $192 billion but we believe it is understated, per our analysis within this report). Given that some projects overlap within these three datasets, the net total figure is $1,148 billion as of the time of writing. We believe the total could potentially accelerate with investment interest in Canada on the rise. We note that defence expenditures incremental to the NRCan, ReNew, and MPO datasets in the Defence Major Infrastructure Projects – Canada dataset of the Department of National Defence are $25 billion-$62 billion and may rise further.

Comprehensive mapping and project details. We encourage our readers to visit the Scotia Growth Institute website, which combines six different datasets to provide an interactive map of Canada’s comprehensive project inventory. The live map allows users to filter by multiple different criteria with project details available within each point on the map.

Funding Building Canada initiatives. The 2025 federal budget targets $1,080 billion of government-stimulated public-private spending over the next five years. This includes $451 billion of federal investment on a cash basis ($279 billion on an accrual basis), with the bulk of the $1,080 billion to be “crowded in” from the private sector (the MPO cites $500 billion in future private-sector investment and, while not itemized, we believe the Major Projects will attract much of the private capital that Canada seeks to harness to build productive capacity in the economy). The inaugural Canada Investment Summit 2026 seeks access to $120 trillion in assets under management (AUM) and we believe momentum could foster additional capital attraction to Canada for a potentially more beneficial public-private force multiplier than budgeted.

Additional funding sources and mechanisms. Within, we detail additional capital sources and mechanisms that may prove very helpful to Building Canada initiatives (i.e., government capital asset stock [$900 billion, possible 5%-10% monetization]); Canada’s pension funds (>$3 trillion, arguably underinvested in the country); alternative-investment AUM strategies from Canada’s mutual fund industry ($350 billion); whiteboarding exercises of provincially owned assets (potentially $135 billion); Canada’s recently announced sovereign wealth fund, the Canada Strong Fund ($25 billion), and other various government funding entities.

The Major Projects Office. The MPO was established to help accelerate projects to the Final Investment Decision (FID) stage through the creation of a single point of contact for referred projects that meet its criteria. The MPO can help facilitate intricate processes, such as federal approvals coordination, Indigenous engagement, financing structures, reduction of duplicative jurisdictional and regulatory processes, and bottlenecks. There are currently 18 Major Projects and nine Transformative Strategies announced to date.

Case studies to evaluate progress. To provide a more concrete sense for how the MPO is seeking to help proponents get to construction and operations, we have included five case studies in this report. The case studies endeavour to evaluate MPO impacts at multiple different levels that are crucial precursors to the all-important, yet highly lagging, indicator of dirt work by shovels. The West Coast Oil Pipeline (WCOP) likely offers the highest profile test case of the BCA and MPO in the near term, given decisions expected this fall may provide a helpful “flashing green light” proof-of-concept to global investors that Canada’s ability to get big things done has changed for real.

Scaling the expenditure wall – implications and execution. We have aggregated knowable and surmisable capital expenditure profiles among the 27 MPO-referred Major Projects and Transformative Strategies, which is 1.8x greater than the MPO’s stated amount of $192 billion, and could be greater than 2.5x with further spending expected to be directly related to these initiatives. While the exercise provides a forecast scenario, which is subject to caveats and therefore likely to change as we revisit assumptions with time, Canada is expected to see capital expenditures ramp up dramatically in the 2027-2028 time frame and remain busy out to 2045. The expenditure wall upon us raises many questions, such as how interplay between issues like labour availability, cost containment, skilled trades, regional considerations, and even immigration are to be managed. Our contemplation exercise of future implications raises the obvious question: can Canada execute? We believe Canada can, but the thesis will need to be proven, given the country will be in uncharted waters.

One-page profiles to establish a rigorous baseline. We have attempted to set a baseline for success measurement through detailed one-page analyses of all 27 of the MPO-referred Major Projects and Transformative Strategies. The analyses include the following: regional and satellite project mapping, assessment of project lifecycle development stage, project specifics, and perspectives that include overviews, progress assessments, and what to watch for next. We expect to revisit these profiles periodically to better measure performance in progression of Building Canada initiatives over time.

Past, present, and future. We believe it is important to look back through time to understand what past challenges created bottlenecks in the system and how these issues might be improved. Included within are detailed analyses of the NRCan project inventory over the past decade, with reference to the number of projects, broken out by the various disclosure categories, along with the associated values and available sectors. We have further assessed how these figures have evolved by additions, completions, and subtractions from the dataset to get a sense for success rates versus project mortality rates. The facts of the last decade are sobering: For every two projects added, roughly one reached production and one exited without completion. In our view, the enabling conditions for renewed growth in Canada are present, and we believe the future holds significant opportunities that could propel impressive growth and prosperity gains for the country and its global investing and trading partners.

The federal government has committed to an investment-led growth agenda spanning major projects, energy security, defence, infrastructure, housing, and internal trade. The objective is not investment for its own sake. It is a larger capital stock, stronger productivity and higher living standards.

The ambition appears substantial. Budget 2025 envisages roughly $1 trillion in government-stimulated public and private investment over five years. Yet Canada’s recent track record highlights the challenge. Real fixed-capital investment has been broadly flat for much of the past decade, once current outlays shown in Exhibit 1 are deflated, suggesting that the critical issue is not announcing projects, but advancing them through development and into completed assets.

Note: Baseline assumes trend-investment from prior years.

Sources: Scotiabank Economics; Statistics Canada; Finance Canada.

As a result, the debate is shifting from ambition to execution. While construction activity is the most visible sign of progress, it is also one of the latest stages in the investment process. Long before shovels reach the ground, projects move through planning, consultation, engineering, financing, and contracting before reaching a FID that unlocks construction. If investment momentum is building, evidence should emerge first in these upstream activities.

Traditional economic data lag these early stages. National accounts capture investment only after spending has begun and are published with a lag. In the current cycle, private-sector investment is also likely to follow public-sector commitments. That places greater emphasis on leading indicators, including machinery orders, engineering activity, permitting, hiring, and other project milestones. These measures can provide an early read on whether projects are progressing before meaningful changes appear in headline investment statistics.

At this stage, the evidence is strongest on plans, confidence, and enabling conditions. Policy uncertainty has moderated from recent highs, project entries and exits into the federal assessment process have accelerated, business investment intentions have strengthened, and capital spending plans in sectors such as energy have become more constructive (as shown in Exhibits 2 and 3). None of these developments confirms that an investment boom is underway – and they are far from exhaustive – but together, they suggest the conditions for future capital formation are becoming more supportive.

Sources: (Left) Scotiabank Economics; PolicyUncertainty.com. (Middle) Impact Assessment Agency (June 2026). (Right) Scotiabank Economics; Kearney FDI Confidence Index.

Sources: Scotiabank Economics; Bank of Canada 

A fuller test comes from real activity. Signals remain early but are starting to move in the right direction. Public capital outlays are picking up across levels of government. This is consistent with federal and provincial capital plans, infrastructure commitments and defence procurement intentions. Recent quarterly GDP data are encouraging, with business investment accelerating, but it is too soon to declare success. Sustained gains will be needed, and volatility should be expected. Still, precursor indicators offer some reassurance. Imports of industrial machinery and electrical equipment have increased, for example, and activity related to project development, procurement and engineering appears to be strengthening, as shown in Exhibit 4. These developments are consistent with an economy moving toward a larger investment cycle, even if the cycle has not yet fully materialized.

*Industrial Machinery & Electronics & Electrical Equipment.

Sources: Scotiabank Economics; Statistics Canada.

Financial indicators provide another proxy for momentum. Portfolio flows can shift quickly in response to global risk appetite and relative returns, so they should be interpreted cautiously. Even so, recent movements are broadly consistent with a renewed willingness to allocate capital to Canada. Over the longer term, a more important test is whether investors are committing patient capital through FID. Here, the early direction is also encouraging, particularly given that many recent investment decisions were made before the latest policy announcements and project approvals, as shown in Exhibit 5.

Sources: Scotiabank Economics; Statistics Canada. 

The most convincing evidence will be sequential reinforcement across the investment pipeline.  Per Exhibit 6, which is illustrative, the preliminary data filters should be read together, and we expect to evolve these as we push ahead in our work. The strongest signal would be sequential reinforcement: better enabling conditions, firmer sentiment, stronger financing, rising real activity, and, ultimately, projects entering construction and production phases. That is the pattern consistent with a sustained investment cycle taking hold.

Sources: Scotiabank Economics; Scotia Growth Institute.

Progress will not be linear. Some projects will be delayed, scaled back or cancelled. That is not necessarily failure – in fact, it is a healthy part of success, through rigorous screening and honest assessment of direct project returns and broader economics spinoff benefits. A credible investment cycle does not require every announced project to proceed – quality matters much more than quantity. It requires enough projects to clear the hurdle rate, secure financing, move through approvals and add to the capital stock. We are often reminded that progress is rarely linear and is often more like a crab walking down a beach – it will get there as a function of distance over time through persistence and patience as circumstances change. What matters is whether enough projects advance to meaningfully expand Canada’s capital stock and productive capacity over time.

The strongest conclusion today is one of cautious optimism. It is premature to declare Canada has entered a full investment boom, but several of the signals that should appear early in the cycle are now moving in the right direction. This broader macro picture is underpinned by a growing project inventory and its potential annual capital outlay shown in Exhibit 7. Nevertheless, a broad-based and sustained acceleration in private investment has yet to materialize at scale, and familiar constraints remain, including labour shortages, financing costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and Canada's uneven project-delivery record. The case for optimism is stronger than it was a year ago, but it is still early days for an agenda that will take years to show up fully in the data.

Sources: Scotiabank Economics; Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2025 to 2035, © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2025; Government of Canada, Major Projects Office (MPO) website and project information, accessed 2026-08. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada; Scotia Growth Institute.

The harder work lies ahead. Progress will be uneven, the data will be volatile, and there will be inevitable bottlenecks including some insurmountable. Still, the nature of the constraint matters. If ambitions are trimmed because capacity is stretched, that is very different from trimming them because opportunities are scarce. The problem would be delivery, not demand.

Historical and Future Perspectives

Exhibit 8 provides a sense for some of Canada’s historical achievements in nation-building and industry-catalyzing initiatives, which comprise more than 60 different milestones since the Hudson’s Bay Company was formed in 1670. Canada is, if nothing else, a history of an immensely beautiful land of humble and hardworking communities; Canada’s First Nations, Inuit, and Métis peoples came first, followed by immigrants, all in pursuit of opportunity. The country remains a work in progress, and there will be ups and downs to come, but taking stock of past accomplishments offers examples from the past of how the future may yet be shaped.

Source: Scotia Growth Institute.

Over the 2015-2025 time frame, Canada completed projects of significance, such as LNG Canada and the Coastal GasLink pipeline, which began to help the country better capitalize on export markets for the country’s natural gas resources. Similarly, the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) was expanded to improve tidewater access for the country’s oil sands resources. While these projects were substantial and helped diversify markets, that decade also brought significant societal and environmental emphases in policy matters, which generally led to longer timelines for approval processes in natural-resource and infrastructure projects.

For perspectives on potential reasons why development became inhibited, we recommend a review of Build Big Things, a 2025 publication from the Public Policy Forum (PPF). The PPF noted the following challenges for Canada as examples:

·     GDP per capita growth: 37^th out of 38 in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) over the past decade (1.4%).

·     General construction permit timeline: Second longest in OECD (over 225 days in 2024).

·     Ease-of-Doing Business Index: 25^th (compared with fourth two decades ago).

To address these issues Bill C-5 received royal assent on June 26, 2025, and the enacted BCA contained within outlined initiatives to designate key projects as being of national interest and, subsequently, take action to see development accelerated. Additionally, the BCA/OCEA established a framework to remove barriers and incentivize free trade and labour mobility across Canada, ultimately to support all economic activity across the country, not just on designated projects. The high-level objectives of the BCA are as follows:

·     Strengthen Canada’s autonomy, resilience, and security.

·     Provide economic or other benefits to Canada.

·     Have a high likelihood of successful execution.

·     Advance the interests of Indigenous Peoples.

·     Contribute to clean growth and to meeting Canada’s climate change objectives.

To help achieve the above, the federal government created the MPO to advance nation-building projects in Canada. The MPO’s mandate is to serve as the single federal point of contact for
proposed Major Projects Canada-wide, coordinating across federal, provincial, and territorial departments, private proponents, and Indigenous Peoples to fast-track projects from proposal to development (shovels in the ground). It should be noted that not all projects, big or small, would
benefit from MPO involvement and that the goal to streamline regulatory processes is also afoot for all projects in Canada.

Canada's Project Inventory

The bigger picture numbers approximate $1.1 trillion dollars of opportunity over the next decade and are as follows:

·     $637 billion in active projects over the next decade, per the NRCan Major Energy and Natural Resources Projects Inventory.

·     Capital investment into natural resources does not provide 100% of capital spending in Canada but it likely gives a very good idea about the bulk of what is going on, excluding basic infrastructure and defence initiatives.

·     Other infrastructure not accounted for in the NRCan data via ReNew Canada Top100 Infrastructure Projects 2026 report amount to $341 billion.

·     Our estimate of the definable costs for the MPO’s Major Projects and Transformative Strategies is $342 billion. Some of these figures also overlap with the NRCan and ReNew datasets.

·     With overlaps accounted for, projects in the NRCan, ReNew, and MPO datasets are $1,148 billion. We believe this figure could potentially accelerate with investment interest in Canada on the rise.

·     We further note future defence expenditures incremental to the NRCan, ReNew, and MPO datasets currently on the books for Canada are in a stated range of $25 to $62 billion, and may rise further.

Exhibit 9 plots the full NRCan Major Project dataset for the 10-year span of 2025-2035 (the most recent data available). The inventory focuses on minerals, metals, energy, and forestry sectors and we have further included the ReNew Canada Top100 Infrastructure Projects in the analysis (defence is excluded given less precision due to ranges and nondisclosure). The dataset is not an exhaustive list, given project size cutoffs whereby NRCan inclusion requires a minimum capital worth threshold of $50 million in the energy and mining sectors and $20 million for the electricity and forestry sectors. Clean energy and clean technology projects must meet a minimum capital worth threshold of $10 million.

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2025 to 2035; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Government of Canada, Major Projects Office (MPO) website and project information, accessed 2026-08; ReNew Canada's Top100 Projects; Scotia Growth Institute.

Exhibit 10 features the breakdown of projects by provinces and territories. These figures do not include capital expenditures for upstream oil sands and natural gas production expansions required to fill increased egress to tidewater through the WCOP and LNG export facility buildouts. The sums would likely be material, with development expenditures for the oil sands estimated to be approximately $100 billion or more and likely $50 billion-plus for natural gas split 65/35 between British Columbia and Alberta.

Note also that some projects are multijurisdictional, for which we have made cost assumptions as follows: Labrador Trough Corridor is split 50/50 between Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador, WCOP is split 55/45 between British Columbia and Alberta, and Alto High-Speed Rail is split 50/50 between Ontario and Québec. Major Projects and Transformative Strategies without a clear costing breakdown are also not shown.

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2025 to 2035; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Government of Canada, Major Projects Office (MPO) website and project information, accessed on 08/2026. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada; ReNew Canada's Top100 Projects; Scotia Growth Institute.

Exhibit 11 includes NRCan projects that are in the following stages: Announced & Planning, Approved, In Review, and Under Construction. The additional category of Active is included, which is a status assigned specifically to projects in the ReNew Canada Top100 dataset for infrastructure.

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2025 to 2035; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Government of Canada, Major Projects Office (MPO) website and project information, accessed on 08/2026. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada; ReNew Canada's Top100 Projects; Scotia Growth Institute.

Exhibit 12 displays an interactive map of Canada available at the Scotia Growth Institute website, which we encourage our readers to visit and use, that combines six different datasets:

·     Major Energy and Natural Resource Projects Inventory (NRCan).

·     Canada’s Critical Minerals (NRCan).

·     Minerals and Mining in Canada (NRCan).

·     Major Projects and Transformative Strategies (MPO).

·     Top100 Infrastructure Projects (ReNew Canada).

·     Defence Major Infrastructure Projects – Canada (Department of National Defence).

The live map allows users to filter by multiple different criteria with project details available within each point on the map. We believe these datasets in combination offer a comprehensive view of Canada’s project inventory.

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada, Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2025 to 2035; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of National Defence, (2025); Government of Canada, Major Projects Office (MPO) website and project information, accessed on August 2026. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada; ReNew Canada's Top100 Projects; Scotia Growth Institute; konrad.com.

Exhibit 13 highlights the Major Projects and Transformative Strategies referred to the MPO to date embedded within the broader project inventory of the country.

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2025 to 2035; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Government of Canada, Major Projects Office (MPO) website and project information, accessed on 08/2026. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada; ReNew Canada's Top100 Projects; Scotia Growth Institute.

The MPO-referred projects are across all segments of the economy and all regions of the country. The projects include some that are relatively small but also initiatives that are massive in scale, such as the Labrador Trough, which is the single-largest clean energy project ever announced in North America. Such an initiative would create a critical minerals and infrastructure corridor supported by 14,000 MW of renewable power, equivalent to the lighting, heating, and cooling requirements for all the homes in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.

How It All Might Be Funded

In terms of funds to help catalyze development, the 2025 federal budget set out a plan to mobilize $1,080 billion of government-stimulated public-private spending over the next five years. This includes $451 billion of federal investment on a cash basis ($279 billion on an accrual basis), with the bulk of the balance to be “crowded in” from the private sector. We expect the stimulus to the economy to be material and the multiplier reasonably cautious. We further believe momentum could foster additional capital attraction to Canada for a more beneficial public-private force multiplier than budgeted.

Funding could also be aided through asset recycling of $900 billion in government capital stock that could raise $50 billion (and potentially double under bolder parameters). Separately, outside-the-box whiteboarding monetization of some provincial liquor and gaming control boards could offer $135 billion. Further Crown corporation sales could also be contemplated. The private sector could boost funding with a portion of $350 billion in alternative-investment AUM expected over 10 years. Canada’s mutual fund industry could enable funding access to such AUM through unique instruments available to all Canadians, and we would not be surprised to see tax mechanisms incentivize these kinds of opportunities; though as a caveat, complexity of innovative fund structures and associated administration could be a concern for mutual fund managers and retail wealth advisors. There is also room for the various Canadian pension funds to play a major role, given arguments that they are underweight in large domestic infrastructure.

The Canada Strong Fund has also been announced as Canada’s first national sovereign wealth fund, established as a Government of Canada-owned investment vehicle and structured as an arm’s-length Crown corporation. The government will provide initial seed capital of $25 billion over three years on a cash basis, and further assets may be allocated to it over time. The fund structure will allow all Canadians with some form of access to the investment product (product yet to be created) with the key characteristics being:

·     Broadly accessible to Canadians.

·     Easy and simple to purchase, hold, and transact.

·     Investors share in the upside, while invested capital “will be protected” (we would not be
surprised to see the creation of different product types for varied risk exposures, but this is our conjecture only).

The federal government created the MPO in 2025 to advance nation-building projects faster, responsibly, and sustainably, following the enactment of Bill C-5. The MPO’s mandate is not to replace existing regulators or project proponents, but to act as a single federal point of contact for referred projects, helping coordinate federal approvals, financing structures, Indigenous engagement, and intergovernmental decision making. In practice, the office is intended to reduce duplication across review processes, resolve policy or regulatory bottlenecks, support financing discussions with federal Crown corporations and other partners, and provide a clearer path from proposal and permitting toward investment decisions and, ultimately, construction. Exhibit 14 shows the current MPO list of Major Projects and Transformative Strategies.

The two categories of initiatives that it aims to accelerate are as follows:

1.        Major Projects. These are “shovel ready” projects from across the country that could benefit from having additional support to accelerate their development. The projects in this category have typically already been reviewed, often received necessary approvals, and had key proponents identified, and would benefit from federal coordination to complete the final steps toward the various milestones and ultimately the start of construction.

2.        Transformative Strategies. These are projects that are early in their planning stages but have been identified as having the longer-term potential to substantially strengthen Canada’s economy. The Transformative Strategy projects require detailed planning and evaluation in the near term, and the MPO aims to more quickly advance and de-risk these projects to a point where they can be advanced toward an investment decision.

Source: Scotia Growth Institute.

Below are the key considerations with regard to the MPO:

·     Core mandate is execution, not reporting. Aim to get businesses investing in Major Projects with “shovels in the ground” within two years.

·     BCA dramatically compresses timelines. For National Interest projects, targets include mining (six to seven years to two years), nuclear (10 years to two years), and National Interest oil and gas (15 years to 1.5 years). Approvals now happen first (how a project proceeds, not whether), with a conditions document that removes layers, enables pre-construction funding, and can help to accelerate into FIDs.

·     Major Project quality filtered for strict national-benefit criteria. MPO deliberately screens only a small subset of projects, which prioritizes quality over quantity. We believe there are cautionary examples like Alberta's prior renewables pipeline at 4x installed base and excessive fervour that existed in the U.S. IRA, such that some attrition and rejection of projects should be seen as a sign of a healthy process.

·     Regional project slates are attracting major capital across the country. The numbers and initiatives can add up quickly:

·     Western Canada has several opportunities underway (i.e., Canada-AB-Oil Sands Alliance [OSA] Memorandum of Understanding [MOU], WCOP, LNG, North Coast Transmission Line [NCTL], etc.) in the potential area of $200 billion.

·     Northern Canada is primarily focused on critical minerals, defence, and infrastructure with approximately $50 billion in exposure.

·     Eastern Canada is concentrated on electricity, nuclear, transmission, critical minerals, and infrastructure for the balance.

·     Near-term attention on Grays Bay Road and Port, Nuclear Waste Management Organization’s (NWMO) deep geological repository, Roberts Bank Terminal 2, Mackenzie Valley Highway, and WCOP, could potentially catalyze $40 billion-$45 billion in approximately three months.

·     While the country’s communications, information technology, and AI strategies do not have significant dollars associated to projects yet, we would not be surprised to see this evolve quickly, given the necessity to maintain pace with these trends globally for both business and security reasons.

·     Success measurement. Primary considerations are FID conversion, real economic value, and crowding-in private capital. Key metrics are as follows:

·     How many projects reach FID within two years (i.e., LNG Canada Phase 2 and Red Chris Expansion examples targeting year-end 2026 FIDs).

·     If Canada is better off post-completion, and positive lifecycle economic knock-on effects.

·     Preferred tool is repayable capital versus grants to ensure governance, accelerated recycling of funds, and positive public-private force multipliers.

Getting the Sand Out of the Gears

While it remains early days to engage in materially informative success measurement, Exhibit 15 attempts to establish a baseline for where the MPO’s Major Projects and Transformative Strategies are in the lifecycle of stages, from concepts through to operations. The 18 Major Projects are generally at more advanced stages, while all nine of the Transformative Strategies remain early in their processes at the Announced and Planning phase. We have included examples within the diagram to give a sense for where movement is afoot within the MPO’s initiatives. We find that the common refrain from the marketplace is often “I don’t see shovels in the ground yet.” We believe this comment belies the reality of how challenged movement through the lifecycle stages was in the 2015-2025 time frame, how change to large systems takes time, and that there are many enabling conditions adjustments under the surface that point to an increased pace in 2027 and beyond. The main goal of the MPO is to ultimately get projects to FID, which will progress naturally into construction and operations. The MPO will also seek to help influence the process in other ways that can enable things that might be less visible to many observers.

Source: Scotia Growth Institute.

Given the nuances and nature of how the lifecycle of stages can progress, at times predictably but also often idiosyncratically, it can be difficult to peg all of them down in terms of when the design begins, if there will be multiple phases, how financing is secured, when construction is expected to start, and when operations will commence. In other words, is advancement through the various processes moving at pace? To provide a better sense for how the MPO is seeking to help proponents to get to “shovels in the ground” and operations, we have included five case studies within this report. The case studies endeavour to evaluate MPO impacts at multiple different levels that are crucial precursors to the all-important, yet highly lagging, indicator of dirt work by shovels.

The first case study is focused on the WCOP and is featured in the section that follows. We highlight the WCOP in particular because of its outsized implications for Canada’s GDP, not only from the project itself but more significantly through the related projects of the Pathways and upstream oil sands development. In combination, these three projects would be expected to enable upwards of $150 billion in development capital. It is also an important barometer in terms of how Canada needs to balance multiple considerations, such as trade diversification, sovereignty, environmental, Indigenous, and interprovincial needs and preferences, and also because regulatory determinations are expected in the near-term.

The other four projects featured in Appendix II of this report include:

·     Contrecoeur Container Terminal at the Port of Montreal, which broke ground on April 9, 2026.

·     Nouveau Monde Graphite’s Matawinie Mine, which formally began construction on May 19, 2026.

·     Phase 1 of BC Hydro’s NCTL, where construction began in July 2026.

·     Darlington Nuclear Small Modular Reactor (SMR), which continues its development after entering construction on May 8, 2025.

In addition to the above four, plus the WCOP, there is a sixth project that is on the cusp of commercial operations that we have not provided a case study for but is important to note:

·     McIlvenna Bay, which was already under construction when referred to the MPO, has also advanced into commissioning. Wet commissioning of the processing plant was completed before hot commissioning began, with first copper concentrate produced on June 2026.

·     The mine site, now owned and operated by Eldorado Gold following its acquisition of Foran Mining, is ramping toward its 4,900-tonnes-per-day (tpd) nameplate capacity, with commercial production targeted for Q3 2026.

October 1, 2026, is the deadline the Government of Canada has given for making an official announcement as to whether or not it will list the proposed WCOP under the new BCA, after the project was officially referred for consideration on July 2, 2026. In terms of total project investment, the WCOP’s estimated cost of $35.2 billion to $43.7 billion is among the top three projects currently being considered by the MPO (alongside Alto Rail and Labrador Trough Corridor), and our view is that the WCOP (or whichever major project is the first to be listed) will serve as a strong indicator for the effectiveness of the BCA, and potentially be an inflection point for attracting long-term capital investment.

While previous proposals for an additional pipeline to the west coast have been unsuccessful, if a new project is ultimately pursued the combination of the BCA and MPO can help facilitate timely resolutions to previous obstacles and risks. The WCOP is the first project referred for Schedule 1 consideration (see Exhibit 16 for a potential route), which means the MPO’s preliminary assessment of the project was positive, and the project is now in an initial consultation period with potentially impacted partners and Indigenous Rights Holders before it can be considered for Schedule 1 listing. Ultimately, the federal Cabinet (on recommendation of the Minister of One Canadian Economy) will determine if a project is listed, and while there are options to remove a project after it has been added, the messaging has been that once a project is listed, a high-level roadmap has been visualized and it is full speed ahead.

Source: Government of Alberta; Scotia Growth Institute.

The upside opportunity of the BCA is enabling the conditions for “full speed ahead” by consolidating approvals and streamlining the project assessment process. Instead of having numerous government departments independently review a project, one-at-a-time, a listed project will be granted an all-encompassing conditional approval, and a conditions document would subsequently be issued providing a clear pathway to completion. This conditions document would replace all permits and, as communicated in the WCOP project’s MOU between the Government of Canada and the Government of Alberta, the expectation is that it would be issued under the BCA by September 1, 2027, following any necessary consultations with First Nations groups that have a treaty or land claim agreement affected by the project. Having a conditions document for the WCOP project by September 1, 2027, could allow a commercial framework to be finalized in 2028, followed by an FID that could enable the start of full construction in H2 2028 to 2029 onward as shown in Exhibit 17 below.

For illustrative purposes; Scotia Growth Institute.

Source: MPO/Building Canada Act (Bill C-5); Canada Gazette (August 1, 2026); AB-CAN MOU materials; WCOP timing per Scotia Growth Institute (July 3, 2026). 

Our view on the most likely scenario for the future of the WCOP is that the project receives a Schedule 1 listing under the BCA by the October 1 deadline, and that discussions will then shift to how quickly the project can progress through the subsequent stages to enter full operations. We believe that a Schedule 1 listing and expedited steps toward a formal start of construction within approximately three years would be a strong indicator about the effectiveness of the BCA and MPO, and it would also represent a “green flashing light” to investors for all future BCA Schedule 1-listed projects. Realizing an accelerated timeline for getting shovels in the ground could demonstrate a shift in Canada’s growth ambitions and its ability to execute on large-scale capital investments, while also being a positive catalyst for WCOP-related projects like the Pathways, oil sands upstream expansion potential, and even adjacent LNG build-outs. Key risks to this scenario and the broader Building Canada initiatives could be any interruptions or delays to the subsequent stages of development, particularly if a timeline of approximately three years for the start of construction begins to appear unachievable.

Alternatively, a less likely scenario that we see for the WCOP could be that the Government of Canada decides against listing the project as Schedule 1 under the BCA and subsequently shifts its focus toward other Major Projects and Transformative Strategies as referred by the MPO. In our view, this less likely scenario could create uncertainty about the effectiveness of the BCA and MPO and potentially be an “amber light” for the Building Canada strategy. We see the WCOP as among the key major projects capable of substantially shifting sentiment towards investment and growth opportunities in Canada, and in the case the WCOP is not listed as Schedule 1 under the BCA, we believe that questions and concerns from investors could begin to arise about near-term Building Canada catalysts.

The third, and least likely, scenario we see for the WCOP is that the project is encumbered with uncertainty about its future and there are limited decisive actions signaling its development or cancellation. Our view is that the BCA and MPO efforts appear aimed at streamlining project development processes and decisions, and a lack of clarity or transparency about the WCOP’s path forward to completion (or its cancellation) would be viewed unfavourably. This scenario could arise after listing the project as Schedule 1, and there being a series of unanticipated interruptions or delays, and it is our opinion that a clear decision to either pursue the project aggressively or cancel the project would be superior to prolonged project gridlock and uncertainty.

In summary, we see the WCOP as a strong option to catalyze the Building Canada efforts, particularly as investors eagerly seek clear green lights to deploy capital and partner in streamlined growth opportunities. The WCOP is among the few $10+ billion opportunities in the current nation-building project inventory, and potentially the strongest in moving the needle on investor sentiments. We see the WCOP as the most logical near-term opportunity to clearly establish momentum for Building Canada initiatives and are looking forward to any future updates.

Exhibit 18 shows a potential spend profile for 17 Major Projects and three Transformative Strategies (Alto High-Speed Rail, Pathways Plus, and Labrador Trough Clean Power, Critical Minerals, and Infrastructure Corridor) that have clear estimates for start and end dates and somewhat clear cost estimates. The spend for all these projects begins in 2023 with McIlvenna Bay Copper Mine Project and currently ends in 2045 with the planned completion of the Deep Geological Repository entering production and accepting used nuclear fuel. Rather than spreading each project’s cost evenly over the time horizon, the model shapes it into a normal distribution spend curve (slow mobilization, a construction peak, then a wind-down). Together, the projects represent roughly $342 billion of identifiable capital deployed between 2023 and 2045. We note that not all spend is new, incremental, government spend (not all projects precisely delineate government versus private enterprise capex neatly). Furthermore, not all projects have costs that will remain unchanged as the projects enter and progress through construction; therefore, a clear linkage between this and the $192 billion of new investment cannot be fully reconciled yet.

The chart on the left (Total [LHS]) shows spend ramping sharply from 2026, cresting in the 2028-2029 window at just over $40 billion with an uptick in the late 2030s to account for the expected capex for Alto High-Speed Rail and Labrador Trough. The cumulative line (RHS) shows capex rising sharply from 2026 to 2039 before tapering in the 2040s. The chart on the right presents the same projects at a sectoral level, stacking annual capex by category, and paints a similar picture: spend is concentrated in the oil and gas/LNG sector through the early 2030s, after which, Alto High-Speed Rail and Labrador Trough account for the bulk of spending from the late 2030s to the mid-2040s. Peak spend occurs in 2028 and 2029 with the primary projects being LNG Canada Phase 2, Pathways Plus, and the WCOP, all of which will need to start construction to finish and be in production by the mid-2030s, as discussed in the AB-CAN trilateral MOU.

Note:

Projects are included if they have an identifiable cost and estimated or finalized start and end dates.

All project capex values are subject to revision unless they have entered post-production status.

All project start and end dates are subject to change unless they have already reached construction or completion status.

Source: Major Projects Office (MPO) website and project information, accessed 2026-08. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada; Scotia Growth Institute.

Caveats

Labour Availability

The capex curve is steep and concentrated. Roughly 48% of all tracked capital lands in just five years (2027-2031), with the single busiest year being 2027. Translating capital into workers, BuildForce Canada frames the current national build-out as happening "at a scope and speed not seen in more than 70 years," against a construction labour force of about 1.5 million people. A spike of this shape will compete for welders, electricians, heavy-equipment operators, pipefitters and project managers who are already largely employed. We expect the binding constraint through 2027-2031 to be skilled-trade availability – especially in the dominant sectors: Oil, Gas & LNG (~37% of capital), Road & Rail (~23%), and Power & Transmission (22%) – and in remote regions (northern BC, Labrador, the territories) where several of these projects sit and where camp-based labour must be flown in. A very concrete illustration already exists in the portfolio regarding the NCTL. BC Hydro is redeploying Site C’s ~2,000-person work camp directly onto the NCTL, indicating that skilled crews and accommodation are a scarce, shared resource that must be sequenced from one megaproject to the next.

Cost Inflation

When demand for trades and materials peaks simultaneously across many projects, wages and input prices bid up – the boom effectively inflates its own cost base. Because the spend curves for the biggest projects overlap in 2027-2031, it creates cost-pressure exactly where the oil, gas, and NGL timelines are the tightest. Costs also apply to materials: steel, concrete, transformers and turbines are globally traded and subject to tariff and supply-chain shocks (BC Hydro explicitly flags "tariff impacts on steel pricing" as a live risk on Site C even in its final year). The modelled dollar totals should be read as today’s-dollar, pre-escalation estimates. If several megaprojects hit their construction peak together, real delivered costs are likely to exceed the modelled figures and the more synchronized the peak, the larger we anticipate that gap.

Spend Profile

Exhibit 18 illustrates one of many potential scenarios that spend can occur for these major projects. We have elected to show the normal distribution on a per-project basis as it has the following advantages:

·     20 projects aggregated. The more independent project curves there are, the more the aggregated values tend to smooth into a bell-like envelope regardless of each project’s individual shape as consistent with central-limit behaviour.

·     Disclosure. Not all projects have equivalent levels of disclosure. Our modelling relies on an expected start date, project budget, and an expected end date, all of which are subject to updates as the projects continue their journey to completion.

·     Time horizon. From the earliest major project start date to the latest project end date currently spans 90 quarters (22.5 years). The normal distribution creates a symmetric spend curve across those 90 quarters such that, at an aggregate level, it has the potential to be more robust than the spend curve at an individual project level over time. Errors in individual project shapes are not additive and can partially cancel out. For example, one project that, in reality, ramps faster than modelled can be offset by one that may ramp slower, and with 20 projects, the residual error on the aggregate is more likely to be smaller.

The normal distribution also has the following limitations that are worth noting:

·     Symmetry. The normal distribution creates a symmetrical distribution around the midpoint between the start and end dates that are largely estimates for future-dated projects. Major infrastructure and resource projects ramp up slowly and wind down over a longer commissioning tail – a right-skew. The normal distribution has a tendency to front-load spend.

·     Scheduling. The normal distribution assumes that all construction and development schedules hold from the onset. The current curves are anchored based on the start and end dates, which are prone to adjustments over time, particularly as multiple projects require the same labour force that is inherently limited.

·     Independence and project nuances. Each project’s curve is drawn independently, so the model does not capture the interdependencies among projects. It also does not capture the nuances between projects such as the NCTL, which is broken into three phases that may require both simultaneous and sequential construction to complete.

·     Political shifts. Many of these projects are long-dated such that there is a potential for multiple federal and provincial political regimes based on the election cycle. In the past, this has been particularly burdensome for the Alto High-Speed Rail project, which has been viewed as a positive by one political party and subsequently delayed when another provincial political party was elected and did not deem it a priority.

·     The tail truncation and outliers. To adequately model the spend, we truncated the tails of the normal distribution to three standard deviations around the mean as doing so encompasses 99% of all outcomes from the statistical standpoint. However, large projects tend to have a long lifecycle and there can be instances where persistent delays could push certain project completion dates meaningfully beyond the initial expected completion dates, which is a variable that is quite difficult to model accurately.

Although these limitations exist, no distribution will perfectly model the behaviour of all Major Projects aimed to be planned and executed over the next two decades. There are other methods such as the Project Evaluation and Review Technique, Monte Carlo simulation, and Critical Path Method that can have stated advantages such as a right-skew of typical construction projects (upfront heavy spend with long commissioning tail) and scenario planning (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic). However, these techniques require more assumptions, expert judgment, and asymmetric distributions that may not scale well when viewed in aggregate across all initiatives (plus any additional initiatives that may come into existence in the future). The objective is not to forecast a precise capex path, but to frame one plausible aggregate spend scenario for the Building Canada portfolio and, in doing so, provide context for the scale, cadence, and execution challenges implied by moving these initiatives to construction and operation.

Can Canada Execute?

We believe that the full portfolio, on this schedule, is optimistic but possible. When Canada has undertaken large projects in the past (TMX is the most prominent example, and Alto Rail has been attempted over 10 times via feasibility studies) cost overruns can be common occurrences. Applied to this MPO portfolio, we believe that the smooth modelled capital curve almost certainly overstates how neatly capital will flow into execution and likely understates total capex that will be required to complete construction and achieve production in a timely manner. However, the federal, provincial, and geopolitical backdrop is notably different now than in the past decade. There is a definite sense of urgency in Canada’s economic development and the willingness for all levels of government to coordinate to achieve economic productivity is notable and should not be ignored.

As government mandates update and reform, certain projects and transformative strategies may take a higher priority than others. Projects may also be added or removed as they’re deemed more immediate from an economics standpoint. The federal government has also created a more fulsome Major Project inventory that shows the progression of key resource projects over a 10-year period as shown below.

In the section that follows, we provide a one-page profile for each project that attempts to gain insights through the following framework of analysis:

·     Project mapping:

·     Regional and satellite.

·     Project stage:

·     Status within the lifecycle (see stages below).

·     Project specifics:

·     Type.

·     When referred to MPO.

·     Location.

·     Sector.

·     Proponent.

·     Ownership.

·     Estimated completion date.

·     Projected cost.

·     Project perspectives:

·     Overview.

·     Progress update.

·     What to watch for.

We believe these evaluations will provide us with a helpful baseline as we seek to monitor and evaluate the future progress of the MPO’s Major Projects and Transformative Strategies.

Transformative Strategy: Alto High-Speed Rail

Source: Altotrain.ca

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview
In September 2025, the Alto high-speed rail project was identified by the Government of Canada as a transformative strategy to be part of its Building Canada initiatives. The

$60 billion-$90 billion project is the largest (nominal and inflation adjusted) ever undertaken in Canada’s history. Alto will create a modern 1,000 km transportation system in the country’s most populous economic corridor, from Toronto to Quebec City, and was confirmed in late 2025 with the support of the Major Projects Office (MPO). The Alto project is in the design and engineering phase, with shovels in the ground expected by 2029-2030; the project is also expected to generate 50,000 jobs to construct the various segments of the route over a decade or more. Annual economic productivity gains of $25 billion-$35 billion are expected to add a durable 1.1% to national GDP. A further $55 billion in socioeconomic benefits are expected over the life of the project.

Progress Update

In January 2026, Alto launched its public engagement campaign with open houses, themed roundtables, and information sessions; a summary of consultation feedback is expected in summer 2026, with a second consultation round planned later in 2026 to finalize the route. In December 2025, the Minister of Transport announced the first portion of the project is planned as the ~200 km segment between Ottawa and Montreal, which would allow teams in Quebec and Ontario with construction set to begin in 2029; Federal Budget 2025 proposed legislation to accelerate development.

What to Watch For

Status: Public engagement campaign launched January 2026; first segment (Ottawa-Montreal) construction targeted to begin 2029.

Investment Scale: Up to 1.1% lasting annual GDP increase; 51,000 new jobs over 10 years; 63,000 homes enabled along the route.

Key items to watch: (1) The finalization of the Ottawa-Montreal route following the second 2026 consultation round. (2) Each segment's individual impact assessment under the Impact Assessment Act. (3) Continued engagement with approximately 40 Indigenous communities along the corridor. (4) Legislative progress on accelerating the project per Budget 2025 commitments.

Arctic Economic and Security Corridor

Source (left): Source: His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Source: His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Arctic Economic and Security Corridor (AESC) is a proposed ~400 km all-season road through the Slave Geological Province to the Nunavut border, where it will connect with the Grays Bay Road, led by the Tłı̨chǫ Government and Yellowknives Dene First Nation in partnership with the GNWT. Together with the Grays Bay Road and Port, the AESC would create a new all-season road from Yellowknife to Grays Bay on the Arctic Ocean, unlocking exploration and development of copper, gold, and zinc deposits while supporting Canada's Arctic sovereignty and expanded military presence.

Progress Update

The project was referred to the Major Projects Office on March 12, 2026. Community consultations and Indigenous-led studies are ongoing to inform routing options, led by co-management boards to minimize wildlife impacts. In January 2026, the GNWT, Tłı̨chǫ Government, and Yellowknives Dene First Nation signed a Memorandum of Understanding to advance collaborative planning for the corridor and affirm Indigenous leadership, building on the corridor's September 2025 identification as a potentially transformative early-stage initiative.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Finalization of the corridor route and connection point with the Grays Bay Road. (2) Progress of impact assessments led by co-management boards under the NWT's treaty-based regulatory framework. (3) Determination of governance and ownership models between the Tłı̨chǫ Government, Yellowknives Dene First Nation, and GNWT. (4) Coordination with the Taltson Hydro Expansion, which could supply clean power to the corridor's mineral development.

Transformative Strategy: Atlantic Energy Strategy (Wind West)

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Atlantic Energy Strategy focuses on developing renewable and non-emitting energy across Atlantic Canada by leveraging onshore/offshore wind, nuclear, and hydro power. Its centerpiece, Wind West, seeks to connect over 60 GW of Nova Scotia offshore wind potential to New Brunswick through a 160 km transmission line and new transmission infrastructure, while the broader strategy also includes interties between New Brunswick-Nova Scotia and PEI-New Brunswick, plus Québec-Newfoundland and Labrador collaboration on Churchill Falls and Gull Island.

Progress Update

The Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Energy Regulator's Call for Information and Prequalification process (launched October 2025) closed January 13, 2026, informing the first-ever Offshore Wind Call for Bids expected in the latter half of 2026. A non-comprehensive list of pre-qualified companies includes DEME Concessions Wind NV and a consortium including DP Energy Canada Limited, Enterprize Energy Atlantic Pte Ltd., Nova East Wind, and SBM Renewables. Others include a consortium including Hanwha Ocean and Q Energy; Jan De Nul; Ming Yang Smart Energy; Northland Power Inc.; and Simply Blue Energy Ltd. In February 2026, Natural Resources Canada announced $25 million for Mersey River Wind and nearly $5 million for Net Zero Atlantic's Wind West transmission Pre-Feasibility Study, alongside a $206 million CIB loan for Mersey River Wind.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Launch and results of Canada's first Offshore Wind Call for Bids administered through the C-Nova Scotia Offshore Energy Regulator, expected in the latter half of 2026. (2) Progress toward Nova Scotia's goal of licensing 5 GW of offshore wind by 2033. (3) Construction progress on the Wasoqonatl Intertie (Nova Scotia-New Brunswick) backed by $285 million in CIB financing. (4) Legislative progress on the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit supporting project economics.

Contrecoeur Container Terminal Project

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Under Construction

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Contrecoeur Container Terminal Project is an expansion of the Port of Montreal infrastructure on the St. Lawrence River, and would add up to 1.15 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of annual container capacity (increasing total capacity by 60%) through a new 675-m quay line, rail interchange, road access, and container yard on federally owned land approximately 45 km northeast of Montreal. The Port of Montreal is the largest container port in Central and Eastern Canada and serves markets containing approximately 66% of Canada's population and 75% of its manufacturing capacity.

Progress Update

Site preparation began in October 2025. Financing details for the Canada Infrastructure Bank's $1.16 billion, 35-year loan were finalized on April 6, 2026, and the federal government marked the project's construction milestone on April 9. In-water construction began on August 3, 2026, after preparatory works, crane installation, and sheet-pile deliveries through mid-2026. The project had previously obtained Fisheries Act and Species at Risk Act-compliant authorizations in October 2025 and January 2026 for copper redhorse critical habitat offsetting, and for the wharf and in-water works. A September 29, 2025, Memorandum of Understanding among the MPO, Canada Infrastructure Bank, and MPA coordinated financing, permitting, and regulatory requirements.

What to Watch For

The port's existing Montreal terminals are approaching capacity, and the Contrecoeur site is intended to provide long-term growth capacity – up to 1.15 million TEUs annually, or roughly 60% of the Port's existing annual capacity, as stated by the MPO. The project uses a hybrid delivery model: the MPA controls the in-water works with the Pomerleau/Aecon consortium, while DP World is expected to construct, operate, and maintain the land-side terminal for 40 years. The final construction and operating agreement has not been publicly confirmed.

Key items to track: (1) Finalization of the construction and operating agreement with DP World before land-side works. (2) Completion of remaining environmental authorizations and mitigation requirements relevant to land-side construction, including requirements concerning western chorus frog habitat. (3) Continued Indigenous collaboration outcomes with the Mohawk Council of Kahnawà:ke, W8banaki Nation, and Huron-Wendat Nation under the co-developed Charter of Collaboration. (4) The outcome of the pending Federal Court judicial review of the January 2026 authorization affecting copper redhorse critical habitat, including whether the proceeding results in any changes to project authorizations, mitigation obligations, or the construction schedule. (5) Progress toward commercial operations targeted for 2030.

Canada Nickel's Crawford Project

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source: Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Approved

Project Perspectives

Overview

Canada Nickel's Crawford Project proposes a large open-pit nickel-cobalt mine and on-site mill north of Timmins, within  a region that the company and federal government describe as the world's second-largest nickel reserve. Crawford is designed to produce low-carbon nickel for batteries and green steel, with project emissions intensities forecasted to be nearly 90% below the global industry average, and having the potential for a net-negative carbon footprint through in-process tailings carbonation. The project's 41-year mine-life is expected to support about 5,000 construction jobs and 1,300 operating jobs. Through its NetZero Metals subsidiary, Canada Nickel is also separately advancing proposed downstream nickel refining and stainless-steel/alloy production facilities.

Progress Update

On July 31, 2026, the federal environment minister issued a positive decision statement for Crawford, determining that potential effects within federal jurisdiction are justified subject to legally binding conditions. The project must still obtain remaining federal and provincial authorizations and comply with conditions covering Indigenous interests, fish and fish habitat, migratory birds, and progressive rehabilitation. Crawford is also proceeding through Ontario's One Project, One Process framework. Detailed engineering is underway with Ausenco, and Hydro One engineering work has begun for the project's planned grid connection. Contracting agreements remain in place with Mattagami, Matachewan, and Flying Post First Nations, while Taykwa Tagamou Nation's $20 million convertible-note investment could provide a future equity stake.

What to Watch For

The federal impact assessment decision removes a major regulatory hurdle, shifting attention to permits, financing, engineering, and execution. The  Impact Assessment Agency of Canada filing identifies approximately $6.8 billion of total life-of-mine capital. Several financing avenues have been announced, but aren't treated as fully committed project funding until definitive agreements and conditions are completed.

Key items to track: (1) Receipt of remaining federal and provincial permits and implementation of the conditions of the July 2026 decision statement. (2) A positive construction decision and completion of the full construction financing package, including the Export Development Canada letter of interest, other agency support, Samsung SDI's offtake-linked option, and the proposed investment-tax-credit loan facility. (3) Detailed engineering outcomes, an updated capital estimate, and confirmation of the construction and production schedule. (4) Hydro One connection engineering, transmission infrastructure, and delivery of sufficient low-carbon power to the site. (5) Measurable Indigenous contracting, employment, consultation, and environmental-monitoring outcomes as the project advances.

Transformative Strategy: Critical Minerals Strategy

Source: His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Critical Minerals Strategy prioritizes getting more critical minerals projects to final investment decisions, focused on responsible, regulatory-certain development in regions like the Fosse du Labrador (Québec/Newfoundland and Labrador) and the Northwest Critical Mineral and Conservation Corridor (British Columbia), enabling value chains for clean technologies and defence applications.

Progress Update

The five critical minerals projects referred to the Major Projects Office to date (including Canada Nickel's Crawford Project, Nouveau Monde Graphite's Matawinie Mine, and Northcliff Resources' Sisson Mine) build on recent federal actions announcing 56 new investments, partnerships, and measures accelerating $18.5 billion in critical minerals projects. Budget 2025 further accelerated this work by introducing the First and Last Mile Fund and Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, plus enhanced tax measures for the sector.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Additional critical minerals projects referred to the MPO under this strategy over time. (2) Disbursement progress from the Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund and First and Last Mile Fund. (3) Alignment with the G7 Critical Minerals Production Alliance to strengthen supply chains and reduce concentration risk. (4) Enabling infrastructure investments (ports, roads, transmission) supporting these regions.

Darlington New Nuclear Project

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Under Construction

Project Perspectives

Overview

OPG's Darlington New Nuclear Project (DNNP) is expected to add up to 1,200 MW of electricity to Ontario's grid by building as many as four new GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactors (SMRs) at the existing Darlington site in Clarington, Ontario. An initial 300‑MW nuclear unit has been approved and is targeted to begin operating by the end of 2030, generating reliable, low-carbon electricity for about 300,000 homes, and regulatory and investment approvals are pending for three additional reactors that could increase total capacity to 1,200 MW, enough to power approximately 1.2 million homes. The first unit and shared infrastructure are budgeted at a cost of $7.7 billion, while the full four-unit program is estimated at $20.9 billion. If completed as planned, the project would position Canada as the first G7 nation to operate a commercial, grid-scale SMR, while creating a domestic reference project for exports and strengthening Canada’s nuclear supply chain. More than 80% of project spending is expected to be directed to Canadian companies.

Progress Update

On June 23, 2026, the Government of Canada and the Provincial Government of Ontario jointly announced a $700 million Indigenous loan guarantee transaction with seven Williams Treaties First Nations that will provide the Indigenous groups with the option to eventually acquire a significant minority interest in DNNP. The announcement follows the Canada Growth Fund's and Building Ontario Fund's combined $3 billion equity commitment (up to $2 billion and $1 billion, respectively) to de-risk construction and encourage further private investment in the project.

What to Watch For

The permitting is largely complete for Unit 1. With a construction licence in hand, roughly $3 billion of federal and provincial equity committed, and an Indigenous ownership agreement, Darlington has moved past the question of whether Canada will build an SMR to the harder question of whether it can reduce costs when building additional reactors. The first unit's $7.7 billion carries the full weight of first-of-a-kind engineering, licensing, and shared site infrastructure; the $20.9 billion four-unit program estimate remains subject to refinement.

Key markers to track: (1) Construction progress against subsequent CNSC regulatory hold points. (2) The outcome of OPG's application (filed March 2026) for a 20-year licence to operate. (3) OPG’s potential eligibility for the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit, particularly for qualifying expenditures on additional SMR units. (4) Progress toward decisions on the remaining three SMR units, which would quadruple the project's clean-energy output.

Deep Geological Repository for Canada's Used Nuclear Fuel

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: In Review

Project Perspectives

Overview

The NWMO's proposed Deep Geological Repository would use a multiple-barrier system and a network of underground tunnels and placement rooms approximately 650-800 m below surface to contain and isolate Canada's current and future used nuclear fuel. Following a site-selection process launched in 2010, Wabigoon Lake Ojibway Nation (WLON) and the Township of Ignace, Ontario, agreed in 2024 to advance the area into regulatory decision making. The proposed facility would manage approximately 5.9 million used-fuel bundles and is expected to operate through a lifecycle of approximately 160 years. Deep geological disposal is internationally recognized as best practice and is being pursued in countries including Finland, France, Sweden, and Switzerland.

Progress Update

The project entered the integrated federal impact-assessment and Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) licensing process in January 2026. Final Integrated Tailored Impact Statement Guidelines were issued on July 3, 2026, moving the project into the Impact Statement phase of the integrated Impact Assessment Agency of Canada and CNSC review. The NWMO expects to prepare the Impact Statement and licence-to-prepare-site application through 2026-2028. On June 24, 2026, the project was referred to the Major Projects Office and entered the process toward potential listing under the Building Canada Act. WLON is also conducting its own Regulatory Assessment and Approval Process grounded in Anishinaabe law, values, and responsibilities.

What to Watch For

The repository has moved from site selection into an evidence-intensive regulatory phase.

Key items to track: (1) Completion and adequacy of the Integrated Impact Statement and licence-to-prepare-site application, including the site-specific safety case and repository design. (2) Outcomes of the WLON's independent Regulatory Assessment and Approval Process and broader Indigenous consultation. (3) Whether the project is listed under the Building Canada Act. (4) Updates to the lifecycle cost estimate and schedule, currently indicating about $4.5 billion of construction cost in 2020 dollars, a $12 billion funding requirement from 2026 onward on a 2026 present-value basis, and construction beginning in early to mid 2030s.

Grays Bay Road and Port

Source: His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source: Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: In Review

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Grays Bay Road and Port (GBRP) is a proposed all-season ~230 km road connecting a new deepwater port and airfield at Grays Bay on the Arctic Ocean, within the vicinity of Contwoyto Lake. The port and airfield could have civilian and military applications subject to further assessment by National Defence. Delivered through West Kitikmeot Resources, the project would create new critical minerals export links for the West Kitikmeot region and, together with the Arctic Economic and Security Corridor, establish the first all-season road linking Nunavut to the national highway system.

Progress Update

On June 24, 2026, the Government of Canada initiated the process of potential listing GBRP as a project of national interest under the Building Canada Act. Up to $50 million through the First and Last Mile Fund was conditionally approved on May 20, 2026, for planning and preconstruction work. West Kitikmeot Resources submitted its Impact Statement on March 1, 2026, and Nunavut Impact Review Board (NIRB) File 24XN038 remains in active review. The road and port project have an estimated total cost of approximately $1 billion.

What to Watch For

The project has moved into active regulatory review while major financing, environmental, and execution questions remain.

Key items to track: (1) NIRB's technical review, hearing milestones, and final assessment outcome, including whether West Kitikmeot Resources' targeted project-certificate timing remains achievable (consensus estimate of 2027). (2) Indigenous and community consultation outcomes. (3) Wildlife and habitat mitigation, particularly measures addressing caribou movement, sensitive periods, marine effects, and cumulative impacts from mining development enabled by the corridor. (4) Whether the project is listed under the Building Canada Act and how any resulting federal streamlining interacts with Nunavut's treaty-based review process. (5) Funding and schedule updates for the approximately $1 billion project, including conversion of conditional federal support into committed financing, private investment, a potential 2029-2030 construction start, and ATCO Ltd.'s forward-looking 2035 targeted in-service date.

Iqaluit Nukkiksautiit Hydro Project

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Iqaluit Nukkiksautiit Hydro Project is a proposed 15-30 MW waterpower facility at Kuugaluk (McKeand River South), approximately 60 km northeast of Iqaluit. It is led by NNC, a 100% Inuit-owned subsidiary of Qikiqtaaluk Corporation. The project is intended to replace diesel generators as Iqaluit's primary electricity source. The federal Major Projects Office estimates that it could displace approximately 15 million litres of imported diesel annually and help stabilize electricity rates by reducing exposure to volatile fuel prices.

Progress Update

The project was referred to the Major Projects Office on November 13, 2025, and is currently in Phase 3 engineering and design. It has not yet entered formal project review by the Nunavut Impact Review Board. NNC and Qulliq Energy Corporation signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding on August 29, 2025, to develop a commercial framework for a potential future power purchase agreement. NNC released initial 2025 baseline findings in March 2026 covering aquatics, archaeology, ground conditions, wildlife, and terrestrial studies; expanded studies and geotechnical drilling were planned for summer 2026. NNC estimated the project at approximately $500 million in November 2025, with construction potentially beginning in 2028 and operation by 2030, all subject to financing, engineering, community consent, and approvals.

What to Watch For

The project remains in early development, with major design, commercial, environmental, and regulatory decisions outstanding.

Key items to track: (1) Completion of Phase 3 and selection of the final design and capacity within the 15-30 MW range. (2) Results of expanded baseline studies, including effects on Arctic char, caribou, cultural sites, permafrost, and the Kuugaluk River system. (3) Continued consultation with Iqalungmiut, Panniqtuurmiut, hunters, and other Inuit Rightsholders before the current proposal advances to formal regulatory review. (4) Negotiation of binding commercial terms and a power purchase agreement with Qulliq Energy Corporation. (5) Updates to the approximately $500 million cost estimate, financing plan, and forward-looking 2028 construction/2030 operation targets. (6) Whether the project can displace about 15 million litres of diesel annually while delivering reliable power and stable rates.

Ksi Lisims LNG

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Approved

Project Perspectives

Overview

Ksi Lisims LNG is a proposed 12 Mtpa floating LNG production, storage, and offloading facility with a marine terminal at Wil Milit on Pearse Island, on Nisg̱a'a Nation treaty land. It is being co-developed by the Nisg̱a'a Nation, Rockies LNG, and Western LNG. Feed gas would arrive through the approximately 750 km PRGT pipeline, while planned electrification depends on expanded BC Hydro transmission capacity.

Progress Update

The project received its federal Decision Statement and B.C. Environmental Assessment Certificate on September 15, 2025, and was referred to the Major Projects Office on November 13, 2025. It remains approved but pre-FID, with post-decision conditions, financing, commercial arrangements, and remaining permits still being advanced. In 2026, Ksi Lisims signed long-term LNG agreements with Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE) for 1 Mtpa and Uniper SE for 2 Mtpa; Uniper's first deliveries are expected in 2032. Benefit agreements were also announced with Gitxaała, Lax Kw'alaams, and Metlakatla, and Lax Kw'alaams withdrew its federal judicial review. A January 2026 Memorandum of Understanding contemplates up to 600 MW from BC Hydro once the required North Coast transmission expansion is available.

What to Watch For

The project has cleared environmental assessment but still faces major financing, infrastructure, and execution gates.

Key items to track: (1) FID, currently targeted before the end of 2026, and confirmation of the final capital budget and financing structure (both including and excluding the power infrastructure). (2) Additional binding LNG sales needed to support financing, alongside implementation of the Shell, TotalEnergies, SEFE, and Uniper commitments. (3) Construction readiness and remaining permits for the LNG facility and PRGT, with early 2027 construction and 2032 deliveries now more current reference points than the earlier 2029 operating target. (4) Delivery of up to 600 MW of BC Hydro power and associated North Coast/Nass Valley transmission infrastructure; full electrification underpins the project's low-emissions claims. (5) Compliance with the federal decision statement and 23 provincial certificate conditions, including greenhouse-gas, wildlife, marine-noise, health, cultural-safety, and socioeconomic plans. (6) Continued First Nations engagement and implementation of benefits/project agreements, including any unresolved consultation or legal risks along pipeline and marine routes. (7) Cost-scope clarity: The Major Projects Office states $30 billion investment will be attracted; however, the final costing, both including and excluding the PRGT line is still to be determined. 

Labrador Trough Clean Power, Critical Minerals and Infrastructure Corridor

Source (left): Major Projects Office, Government of Canada; Natural Resources Canada; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Labrador Trough Corridor is a transformative strategy to develop the region of Labrador and Northern Quebec by leveraging and expanding the Churchill Falls Hydroelectric facility, developing the Gull Island Hydroelectric Facility, and linking transmission lines throughout the region to enable natural resource development and its supporting infrastructure. The 1,000+ km long geological belt contains many critical mineral projects and exploration targets, and has a long history of high-purity iron ore for steelmaking. The region is connected by train to the Port of Sept-Îles, through the Quebec North Shore Line.

Progress Update

On August 17, 2026, the strategy was referred to the Major Projects Office as Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and Hydro-Québec signed a definitive cooperation and implementation agreement. The associated clean-energy construction program is valued at nearly $70 billion and includes a new 2,700 MW Gull Island hydroelectric facility, Churchill Falls upgrades and expansion, more than 660 kilometres of transmission, a new 735-kV line toward Labrador West and a proposed 2,000 MW Labrador wind development. The federal government announced up to $10 billion in financial support and investments, including a financing guarantee for the Gull Island Project, and nearly $20 million for feasibility work on four mining-enabling projects involving Labrador West transmission, Kami infrastructure, Lac Knife access and grid connection, and Pointe-Noire rail/port capacity.

What to Watch For

The immediate delivery test is conversion of the umbrella agreement into binding project-level decisions, financing structures, schedules and regulatory pathways. Gull Island is expected online in 2036–2037, so sequencing matters: near-term transmission and logistics improvements must arrive early enough to unlock mine expansions while the larger generation projects advance. Key risks include cost and schedule control across a nearly $70 billion portfolio; environmental assessment and permitting; cumulative effects across two provinces; transmission interconnection complexity; and durable Indigenous participation, including the Innu Nation's role in development, employment, ownership and benefits.

Strategic Perspective

The corridor's strongest advantage is integration, and a reliable source of hydro electricity can be leveraged to support and expand natural resource development in the region, particularly high-purity iron ore that can serve steel markets. Additionally, strengthening and expanding the rail network and shipping port can increase output through Sept-Îles. The announcements frame the program as regional economic development, and the expectation is that the included projects along the corridor will support thousands of construction jobs, and up to 5,000 workers at peak Gull Island construction. The key indicators are binding agreements, Indigenous partnership structures, environmental milestones, financing close, Labrador West transmission approvals, Gull Island schedule, and evidence that mine and port investments proceed because power and logistics bottlenecks are being removed.

LNG Canada Phase 2

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: In Review

Project Perspectives

Overview

LNG Canada Phase 2 is a proposed $33 billion expansion of the only large-scale LNG export terminal in Canada, which loaded its first cargo in June 2025. The Phase 2 expansion would double the facility's current capacity from 14 to 28 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by adding two new liquefaction trains by the early 2030s. The Phase 2 project also includes a parallel expansion of the Coastal GasLink pipeline (Phase 2) and up to six new compressor stations in the infrastructure, which would roughly double throughput from ~2.1 Bcf/d to ~5 Bcf/d. The expansion project will be able to leverage the exisiting Coastal GasLink pipeline corridor and does not require any new right-of-way. The project is estimated to make Canada a top 5 LNG exporter globally, and emissions intensities for the exported gas are projected to be 35% below best-in-class global LNG facilities (and 60% below the current global average), as Kitimat's relatively colder climate assists the gas liquefying process.

Progress Update

Since March 2026, LNG Canada Phase 2 has advanced through a series of cooperation agreements, and a FID could be announced by year-end. In March, LNG Canada and Coastal GasLink's owners agreed to jointly develop a pipeline expansion supporting Phase 2, with LNG Canada leading development and Coastal GasLink providing technical support. In May 2026, LNG Canada's joint-venture participants approved hundreds of millions in incremental funding, which was followed by an enhanced cooperation agreement among the Government of Canada, British Columbia, and LNG Canada to close out remaining items ahead of a potential 2026 FID. In July, the Government of Canada and British Columbia signed a new Cooperative Prosperity Agreement to accelerate permitting, financing, and construction of major energy and trade corridors, including Phase 2, in collaboration with proponents, communities, and First Nations.

What to Watch For

Shell and partners remain wary of cost considerations, given Phase 1 was over budget for both the project itself and the associated Coastal GasLink infrastructure. Concerns about global oversupply of LNG in future years is also a consideration, though Middle East conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and regional supply damage have shifted global buyers' focus to diversify their supply with reliable sources. LNG Canada's also has an advantage through its proximity to Asian markets and favourable security conditions relative to geopolitical considerations.

The key near-term catalyst to track is the FID, expected by year-end 2026, with key factors expected to include the following: (1) Whether JV partners resolve the remaining commercial, fiscal, and governance items, which were explicitly noted in the May 2026 agreement. (2) Coastal GasLink Phase 2 cost certainty. (3) Optimization of British Columbia's emissions and grid conditions. (4) Whether global LNG market conditions and economics, driven by issues such as oversupply concerns and geopolitical security questions, are viewed favourably by the owners of the project.

Mackenzie Valley Highway

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: In Review

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Mackenzie Valley Highway is a proposed all-season gravel transportation corridor through the Northwest Territories. The current Phase 1 project would replace approximately 320 km of seasonal winter road by extending all-season access from Wrigley to Prohibition Creek near Norman Wells, connecting Tulita and Norman Wells. The longer-term corridor concept would continue north toward the Dempster Highway south of Inuvik, creating an approximately 800 km route that improves community access, resupply reliability, emergency response, economic development, and Arctic mobility.

Progress Update

The Wrigley-to-Norman Wells segment remains under environmental assessment before the Mackenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board. The GNWT submitted its Developer’s Assessment Report in October 2023, and environmental, engineering, Indigenous knowledge, socioeconomic, and engagement work continues. In July 2026, the GNWT advised the Review Board that it was evaluating whether to expand the scope to assess the full Wrigley-to-Inuvik corridor in one process. The project was referred to the Major Projects Office in March 2026, and the Government of Canada initiated consultation on June 24, 2026, toward potential listing under the Building Canada Act. Any listing remains contingent on successful completion of the applicable treaty-based assessment and regulatory processes. Sahtu Secretariat Incorporated, the Gwich’in Tribal Council and Pehdzéh Kı̨ First Nation signed a non-binding MOU on June 5, 2026, establishing a coordinated Indigenous framework for governance, planning, co-design, and long-term direction. The preliminary cost estimate for the Wrigley-to-Norman Wells phase is approximately $1.65 billion, but full construction funding remains outstanding and the estimate is expected to evolve. In August 2026, Canada approved the redirection of $65 million in existing federal funding toward near-term construction, procurement, and planning for standalone road and bridge projects along the corridor.

What to Watch For

The project is advancing through assessment and planning, but approvals, funding, detailed design and Indigenous consent remain critical gates.

Key items to track: (1) The GNWT's decision on whether to expand the current environmental assessment to the full Wrigley-to-Inuvik corridor and the resulting revised Review Board work plan and schedule. (2) Regulatory permits, final design, and a construction decision, expected in 2028, all contingent on assessment outcomes and funding. (3) A complete financing plan for the preliminary approximately $1.65 billion construction estimate and how costs are shared between governments and other partners. (4) The Building Canada Act listing process and how any federal streamlining interacts with the Mackenzie Valley's treaty-based regulatory system.

Nouveau Monde Graphite's Matawinie Mine

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Under Construction

Project Perspectives

Overview

NMG is developing a fully integrated source of carbon-neutral active anode materials through an open-pit graphite mine and battery material plant in Québec. The Matawinie Mine will supply concentrated flake graphite to traditional and specialty markets over a 25-year mine life (production of 105 kt annually), and in combination with an integrated battery material plant, the project will ultimately produce spherical graphite for EV batteries and other advanced manufacturing applications. The Matawinie Mine and its processing plants are Phase 2 of the project, as the company has already invested in de-risking efforts by completing Phase 1 piloting and demonstration plants for each stage of the value chain. The project will leverage Québec's affordable hydroelectric grid to power operations, aims to create over 1,000 new careers, and forms part of the Critical Minerals Production Alliance, a Canada-led G7 initiative, with an Impact Benefit Agreement signed with the Atikamekw First Nation of Manawan in 2024.

Progress Update

Construction started May 19, 2026, following a seven-year federal offtake agreement for 30,000 t annually of graphite concentrate on a take-or-pay basis to supply strategic industrial applications and energy security of G7 countries and its allies. There are additional seven-year offtake agreements in place with Traxys for 20,000 tpa and Panasonic Energy for 25,000 tpa, and NMG has entered into negotiations with Eni, an Italian energy company, for a potential 15,000 tpa offtake agreement. The project is supported by a $459 million CIB/EDC financing package, a $113 million Canada Growth Fund commitment, and an approximately US$96.5 million equity raise in April 2026, alongside prior offtake agreements with Panasonic and Traxys and an investment commitment from the Government of Japan.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Construction progress toward the targeted mid-2028 production start. (2) Integration milestones with the Bécancour Battery Material Plant. (3) Continued performance under the Atikamekw First Nation of Manawan Impact Benefit Agreement. (4) Fulfillment of offtake commitments to Canada, Panasonic, and Traxys as domestic graphite supply comes online.

McIlvenna Bay Copper Mine Project

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source: Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Under Construction

Project Perspectives

Overview

The McIlvenna Bay Project is a copper-zinc mine located in east-central Saskatchewan approximately 375 km northeast of Saskatoon and 85 km west of Flin Flon, Manitoba. The site produces copper and zinc concentrates containing gold and silver, is powered largely by hydroelectricity supplied through nearby hydroelectric infrastructure, and is accessible year-round via an 18 km all-weather road. From its 2025 Feasibility Study, the project is estimated to have a pre-tax net present value of $743 million from an 18-year mine life, with average annual production of 41 Mlb copper, 20 koz gold, 444 koz silver, and 54 Mlb zinc, with initial development capex of $635 million. The project was acquired by Eldorado Gold through its completed acquisition of Foran Mining in April 2026 and supports Canada's position as a global supplier of critical minerals for clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and modern infrastructure.

Progress Update

Eldorado Gold completed its acquisition of Foran Mining on April 14, 2026, making McIlvenna Bay a wholly owned Eldorado Gold asset. Construction was approximately 88% complete by the end of January 2026, and the project achieved first copper concentrate production in June 2026. First zinc concentrate followed in July 2026, and Eldorado continued to target commercial production in Q3 2026.

What to Watch For

Reached first production on September 6, 2026, after the first copper concentrate came off the plant on June 7, 2026 and first zinc in July. The ramp-up to the 4,900 tonnes-per-day (tpd) nameplate throughput may carry the usual ramp-up challenges involving equipment, instrumentation, and availability. Eldorado Gold has already commenced a study to increase the plant processing rate to roughly 7,000 tpd, with a targeted timeframe of 2028-2030, while committing ~$17 million to 2026 exploration.

Key items to track: (1) The ramp-up to nameplate throughput (4,900 tpd) and confirmation of commercial production timing. (2) MPO-facilitated coordination on a potential mine expansion. (3) Continued performance under Indigenous collaboration and training/employment agreements, given the provincial environmental assessment approval was already secured in July 2023. (4) Results of the processing-expansion study and whether the proposed silver-lead circuit and approximately 7,000-tpd expansion secure required permits, engagement outcomes, and final investment approval.

North Coast Transmission Line

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Under Construction

Project Perspectives

Overview

The North Coast Transmission project will expand BC Hydro's 500 kV system across Northwest British Columbia. Phases 1 and 2 add new transmission lines and associated infrastructure from Prince George to Terrace, more than doubling regional capacity for communities and industrial demand. Future expansion north of Terrace toward Bob Quinn would support additional mining and critical minerals development in the Golden Triangle. The project is expected to enable major investment in mining, ports, LNG, and other industries while supporting electrification and lower emissions.

Progress Update

Phase 1 runs approximately 165 km from the Williston Substation near Prince George to the Glenannan Substation near Fraser Lake. Phase 1 entered construction in July 2026, with service targeted for fall 2030. Phase 2 runs approximately 275 km from Glenannan to the Skeena Substation in Terrace; early road maintenance and brushing began in 2026, with service targeted for mid-2032. Participating First Nations through the K'uul Power consortium have options to acquire up to 50% equity in Phases 1 and 2. The current estimate for phases 1 and 2 is approximately $6 billion. Canada and British Columbia have committed $3.9 billion toward the phases and Canada Infrastructure Bank has provided a $139.5 million loan for pre-construction activities.

What to Watch For

Phase 1 has entered construction, but cost, schedule, co-ownership, and customer interconnection risks remain.

Key items to track:(1) Phase 1 construction progress, including access roads, clearing, workforce accommodation, tower foundations, and line installation toward fall 2030 service. (2) Final routing, environmental work, and full construction mobilization for Phase 2 toward mid-2032 service. (3) Management of the approximately $6 billion Phase 1 and 2 cost estimate relative to the $3.9 billion government commitment and other financing. (4) Finalization and financing of First Nations co-ownership through the K'uul Power consortium. (5) Transmission capacity and timing required for major customers, including the contemplated 600 MW connection for Ksi Lisims LNG. (6) Scope, approvals, financing, and timing for future expansion north of Terrace toward Bob Quinn, which is outside the current $6 billion estimate.

Transformative Strategy: Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor

Source: BC Hydro.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor covers Northwest British Columbia's Golden Triangle – one of the world's richest mineral reserves essential for energy transition and defence supply chains – and Southern Yukon. It represents an opportunity to align economic development with environmental stewardship and Indigenous leadership, developing mining, energy, and trade infrastructure while dedicating conservation areas, with key anchor projects including the Red Chris Mine Expansion and Ksi Lisims LNG already referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO).

Progress Update

The strategy was referred to the MPO on November 13, 2025, alongside three new critical minerals projects (Crawford, Matawinie, Sisson) and the North Coast Transmission Line and Ksi Lisims LNG, both of which tie into this corridor. The MPO is coordinating a regional plan with British Columbia, the Yukon, Rights Holders, and stakeholders to finalize investment decisions across infrastructure and conservation areas. In our view, the biggest obstacle to unlocking the production of critical minerals in Western Canada is the required significant increase in power distribution to northern British Columbia and improving the British Columbia-Yukon electricity grid interties. Significantly increasing power distribution to this region would materially improve the chances of miners moving forward with the development of several proposed large-scale copper mines, including Teck Resources Limited and Newmont Corporation’s Galore Creek project.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Finalization of the coordinated regional development-and-conservation plan with British Columbia and Yukon. (2) Progress on the North Coast Transmission Line, which directly enables corridor development. (3) Additional Indigenous-led governance agreements following the model set by Nisg̱a'a, Tahltan, Gitxsan, Tsetsaut Skii Km Lax Ha, and Gitanyow. (4) How conservation-area designations are balanced against critical minerals and LNG development timelines.

Transformative Strategy: Pathways Plus

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Oil Sands Alliance.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

Pathways Plus combines the Oil Sands Alliance's emissions-reduction projects with oil production growth support and the proposed WCOP. Its centerpiece, the Pathways Project, is one of the world's largest post-combustion carbon capture and storage projects, targeting 6 Mtpa (net) of CO2 capture by 2035 plus 10 Mtpa of additional emissions reductions by 2045 (16 Mtpa total), while supporting expanded market access and production growth for Canadian oil sands operators.

Progress Update

On July 2, 2026, the Government of Canada announced it will refer Alberta's West Coast Oil Pipeline proposal to the MPO, and Canada, Alberta, and the Oil Sands Alliance reached an agreement to advance construction of the Pathways Project. This followed a May 15, 2026 Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement, an April 1, 2026 impact assessment cooperation agreement, and a March 25, 2026 agreement-in-principle to cut methane emissions 75% below 2014 levels by 2035.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Progress of the Pathways Project toward its 2035 first-phase (6 Mtpa) carbon capture target. (2) The West Coast Oil Pipeline's Building Canada Act listing decision (targeted October 1, 2026). (3) Durability enhancements to the Clean Fuel Regulation and clarity on the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Investment Tax Credit. (4) Alberta's implementation of financial supports for oil production growth tied to WCOP and Trans Mountain egress expansion.

Transformative Strategy: Port of Churchill Plus

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

Following the Arctic Gateway Group, the Port of Churchill Plus strategy proposes to upgrade Canada's only deepwater Arctic port and expand trade corridors with an all-weather road, upgraded Class 1 rail line, a new energy corridor, and marine icebreaking capacity. The strategy prioritizes Indigenous equity ownership and aims to turn Churchill into a major four-season, dual-use gateway, offering the shortest prairie route to European markets and enhancing Arctic sovereignty.

Progress Update

On February 19, 2026, the Government of Canada announced the launch of a market sounding study to gather industry input on the long-term growth potential of Port of Churchill Plus, exploring extended/year-round shipping via icebreaking, a modernized railway, an all-season road, and a potential energy corridor. A parallel Arctic Research Foundation study is examining specialized icebreaker and research vessel deployment to support year-round operations.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Results of the market sounding study and industry appetite for investment. (2) Findings from the Arctic Research Foundation's icebreaking Feasibility Study. (3) Whether a fossil-fuel pipeline component (proposed by NeeStaNan or Western Energy Corridor) is feasible. (4) Progress on Class 1 rail upgrades and all-season road access linking Churchill to the national network.

Red Chris Mine Expansion

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Approved

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Red Chris Mine Expansion is a proposed copper-gold project in British Columbia’s mineral-rich Golden Triangle. Subject to completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study, internal approvals, and a positive FID, the expansion would transition the existing mine from an open-pit to an underground block-cave mine, extend its expected operating life by approximately 14 years, and increase Canada’s annual copper production by an estimated 15%. The project forms part of the proposed Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor. According to the federal Major Projects Office, the expansion would reduce the project's greenhouse-gas emissions intensity by more than 70%. It is expected to support more than 1,800 jobs during peak construction and approximately 1,500 peak-season operating roles.

Progress Update

On June 19, 2026, British Columbia announced key provincial authorizations for the Red Chris block-cave expansion following a collaborative, consent-based assessment process with the Tahltan Nation. The approvals included an amended Environmental Assessment Certificate and amendments to the project’s Mines Act and Environmental Management Act permits. On July 2, 2026, the Government of Canada announced a $500 million contribution supporting the project under the Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement. This followed the March 3, 2026, conditional approval of approximately $44.2 million in federal funding for Northwest Transmission Line system upgrades intended to enable the supply of up to 145 MW to the proposed expansion.

What to Watch For

Newmont Mining is completing a Definitive Feasibility Study and detailed cost estimate; the last published project capital estimate, roughly $2.6 billion, dates to a 2021 Pre-Feasibility Study, while external analysts estimate a figure closer to $3 billion. The proposed expansion would extend the mine life into the mid-2040s and lift Canada's copper output by roughly 15%, but remains subject to a positive FID, targeted for later in 2026.

Key items to watch: (1) Completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study, publication of a detailed capital estimate, and the FID. (2) Disclosure of any design, operating, or ground-support changes arising from the July 2025 fall-of-ground incident and their implications for project cost, schedule, and underground development. (3) Continued engagement regarding transboundary watershed and salmon-habitat concerns raised by Southeast Alaska Indigenous groups. (4) Final funding conditions, schedule, and delivery of Northwest Transmission Line upgrades needed to supply up to 145 MW.

Roberts Bank Terminal 2

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Approved

Project Perspectives

Overview

Roberts Bank Terminal 2 is a proposed three-berth marine container terminal at Roberts Bank in Delta, British Columbia, adjacent to the existing Deltaport and Westshore Terminals. The project includes a new marine landmass, a 1,300 m wharf and berth pocket, a widened causeway, an expanded tug basin, and environmental mitigation works. It would add 2.4 million twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) of annual capacity, increase the Port's container capacity by nearly 50%, and support more than $100 billion in additional annual trade capacity.

Progress Update

The project received federal environmental approval in April 2023, subject to extensive legally binding conditions, and the decision statement was administratively updated in August 2026. Final permits and development work remain underway. TerraMarine was selected in July 2026 as the preferred proponent for the landmass and wharf and is working with the port authority, First Nations, and regulators to finalize design, logistics, schedule, costs, early works, and subcontracting. Financial close, mobilization, and early works are targeted for late 2027, land-reclamation construction for 2028, and terminal operations for the mid-2030s. The project has Mutual Benefit Agreements with 27 First Nations and is being considered for listing under the Building Canada Act.

What to Watch For

The project is approved but has not begun construction; final permits, commercial agreements, cost certainty, and financial close remain as key gates.

Key items to track: (1) Completion of final federal authorizations, including Fisheries Act and Species at Risk Act requirements, and compliance with the decision-statement conditions. (2) Publication of an updated project cost and financing plan. (3) Progress from the non-binding Global Container Terminals MOU toward a definitive terminal development and operating agreement. (4) Building Canada Act consultations and the decision on potential national-interest listing. (5) Implementation of First Nations Mutual Benefit Agreements, Indigenous procurement, and environmental mitigation. (6) Delivery against the mid-2030s operating target and expected gains in container capacity, trade throughput, GDP, and supply-chain employment.

Northcliff Resources' Sisson Mine

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Approved

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Sisson Project is located in New Brunswick, approximately 100 km northwest of Fredericton by road, and is an initiative to develop a porphyry-like tungsten-molybdenum deposit into a long-life open-pit mine. The project is viewed as an opportunity to revitalize tungsten production in Canada, which has been dormant since North American Tungsten Corporation became insolvent in 2015 and closed its Cantung Mine in the Northwest Territories. The Sisson project has a Feasibility study from August 2026 that outlines life-of-mine production of 16.1 Mt of tungsten trioxide (WO3) and 113.5 Mlb pounds of molybdenum (Mo) to be processed over 27 years of operation, yielding 15 Mt WO3 (contained in ammonium paratungstate [APT]) and 111 Mlb Mo (contained in concentrate). The 2026 Feasibility Report presents an estimated post-tax net present value of $6,915 million from lifetime cash flows of  $19.9 billion, while having an estimated initial capex requirement of $1,528 million over 24 months. As global production of tungsten, which is essential in cemented carbide parts for cutting and wear-resistant applications (such as construction, defence, metalworking, etc.), has been ~80,000 tonnes in each the past five years (with ~80% being produced in China), the Sisson Project presents an opportunity for Canada to become a top 10 global producer that could supply countries such as the United States and many European countries that do not currently produce tungsten.

Progress Update

The project published an updated technical report on August 31, 2026, that replaced the historical 2013 report. The project was referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO) on November 13, 2025. Provincial and federal Environmental Impact Assessments for the project were approved in 2015 and 2017, respectively, and additional regulatory requirements were also completed by 2020. The initial construction commencement date of December 2020 was initially extended to December 2022, then December 2025, and now December 2030. In August 2025, Natural Resources Canada announced $8.2 million in funding under the Global Partnerships Initiative to support the project, and the United States Department of Defense provided US$15 million under the Defense Production Act Title III program. The funding will be used to produce an update to the 2011 technical report, in addition to further information that can support a final investment decision for the project. The MPO is now working  with the Northcliff Resources team to provide financial and regulatory assistance in the advancement of the Sisson project.

What to Watch For

Key items to track: (1) Minor permits for construction and operation. (2) Off-take agreements, debt financing, and owners equity to fund the balance of construction costs for the project. (3) Final investment decision expected before the end of 2027. 

Taltson Hydro Expansion

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Taltson Hydro Expansion is a proposal to further build out the hydroelectric dam generating facilities along the Taltson River in the NWT (where there are currently three structures and one power station), and to connect the North and South Slave Lake electrical grids for the first time via a 320 km transmission line (including an underwater section), doubling the NWT's hydroelectric power capacity. The project aims to add 60 MW to the exisiting 24 MW facility on the river, and could then provide reliable electric power to 11 communities (~70% of NWT's population) that have increasingly relied on diesel generators to supply electricity beyond the current grid's capacity. Opportunities to expand the hydroelectric facilities on the Taltson River have been presented previously, with a notable proposal in 2007 considering a 36 MW expansion and transmission line to supply power to the Ekati, Diavik, Snap Lake, and Gahcho Kué diamond mines in the area. The 2007 proposal was ultimately stalled because of financing and environmental concerns, as suitable power purchase agreements could not be reached with the mining operators and support could not be found from the local communities for an appropriate transmission line route.

Progress Update

The project was referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO) on March 12, 2026. The facility recently added 4 MW of capacity with costs of $70 million for the upgrades, and $45 million for fuel and operations to power the surrounding area while the facility was shut down. The MPO is working with Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada and affected Indigenous communities to understand legacy impacts of the original Taltson Dam, while collaborating with GNWT to assess the project's financial and business case and streamline regulatory processes under the NWT's treaty-based impact assessment framework. Project proponents are aiming to file a regulatory application in early 2027, get a decision on construction by the end of 2028, and have shovels in the ground by 2029. The construction period is currently estimated at approximately four years, so the facility’s “first power” could be expected as early as 2033 or 2034.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Finalization of commercial arrangements and ownership structure among GNWT and Indigenous partners. (2) Initiation and progress of the environmental assessment application. (3) Decision between the ~805 km overland route and the ~320 km route (with submarine cable) for the North-South Slave connection. (4) Whether the project achieves its goal of producing power within 10 years.

Transformative Strategy: Transmission InterConnect Investment Strategy

Note: Red Lenses are regions with Significant Critical Minerals Potential.
Source: Canada Infrastructure Bank; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Transmission InterConnect Investment Strategy addresses Canada's electricity demand, which is expected to double by 2050 toward net-zero, by identifying high-priority interties and intra-provincial transmission projects and financial solutions to advance them. It focuses on projects like the North Coast Transmission Line and other interties, drawing on evidence that interconnected electricity networks can save billions annually through improved efficiency and better use of renewables.

Progress Update

Following its May 14, 2026, referral to the Major Projects Office (MPO), the federal government identified five priority transmission projects at the June 26, 2026, Energy and Mines Ministers' Conference: the Yukon-B.C. Grid Connect, Alberta-B.C. intertie restoration, Alberta-Saskatchewan intertie upgrade, Saskatchewan-Manitoba intertie expansion, and the PEI-New Brunswick Interconnection Expansion Project. On July 23, 2026, Canada announced $5.9 million for PEI Energy Corporation to advance engineering and environmental studies for the PEI-New Brunswick project ahead of 2028 construction.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Progress on each of the five identified priority intertie projects. (2) Implementation of the new Federal-Provincial-Territorial Framework on Interties for coordinated planning and cost allocation. (3) Forthcoming National Electricity Strategy that this work supports. (4) Disbursement pace from the Canada Infrastructure Bank's $20 billion clean energy target and the $4.5 billion Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program.

Transformative Strategy: Port of Vancouver Gateway Strategy

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Port of Vancouver Gateway Strategy is an overarching plan to grow capacity at the Port of Vancouver in support of Canada's goal to double exports to non-U.S. markets by 2035. It rests on four pillars: (1) Expanding container capacity via Roberts Bank Terminal 2, (2) developing land/infrastructure for bulk terminals, (3) optimizing and expanding rail infrastructure, and (4) environmental protections (Southern Resident killer whales, Pacific Salmon Strategy Initiative, Oceans Protection Plan). The Port currently handles more cargo than the next five largest Canadian ports combined.

Progress Update

On July 16, 2026, the Government of Canada referred the Gateway Strategy to the MPO, with RBT2 proposed for potential Building Canada Act listing. On July 20, 2026, VFPA was set to launch an operator-selection process for its 40 acre Fraser Wharves terminal site in Richmond, the first major new terminal opportunity at the port in a decade. This followed an April 21, 2026 MOU between VFPA and GCT to advance RBT2 and a July 2, 2026 Canada-B.C. MOU to explore broader project partnerships.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Outcome of the Fraser Wharves terminal operator selection process. (2) Progress and Building Canada Act listing decision for RBT2. (3) Development of the joint Major Projects Office-Transport Canada rail infrastructure strategy. (4) Implementation of the $258 million+ Whales Initiative/enhanced Southern Resident killer Whales protections and $412.9 million Pacific Salmon Strategy Initiative renewal announced in the Spring 2026 Economic Update.

West Coast Oil Pipeline

Source (left): His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources; Scotia Growth Institute. Source (right): Google Maps; Scotia Growth Institute.

Project stage: Announced & Planning

Project Perspectives

Overview

The Alberta provincial and Canadian federal governments have suggested the Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project could be part of a “grand bargain,” whereby decarbonization is paired with new oil egress to tidewater. Canada’s Major Projects Office (MPO) included Pathways Plus among its Transformative Strategies to enable low-carbon oil export opportunities, and the proposal is a new interprovincial pipeline capable of transporting 1 mmbbl/d of crude oil from the Bruderheim, Alberta area to a new deepwater marine terminal in southern British Columbia, largely following the existing Trans Mountain corridor. The project comprises a receipt tank terminal, a ~1,250 km pipeline, 11 pump stations, and a delivery terminal, and is linked to the Pathways Plus transformative strategy and its associated carbon capture commitments. 

Progress Update

On July 2, 2026, the Government of Canada officially referred the West Coast Oil Pipeline to the MPO and initiated the Building Canada Act listing process, alongside an agreement between Canada, Alberta, and the Oil Sands Alliance to advance the Pathways Project carbon capture initiative. Canada intends to give notice in the Canada Gazette by October 1, 2026, if it plans to list the project, with consultations underway with potentially impacted Indigenous communities.

What to Watch For

Key items to watch: (1) Whether Canada lists the project under the Building Canada Act by the October 1, 2026 target. (2) Finalization of the precise pipeline route (original versus optimized corridor). (3) Structuring of Indigenous equity participation via the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation and Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corporation. (4) Continued linkage to Pathways Plus emissions-reduction commitments as a condition of the broader Memorandum of Understanding.

The NRCan’s Major Projects Inventory (MPI) is an annual statistical snapshot of major Canadian energy and natural-resource projects (going beyond the MPO projects and transformative strategies) that are either under construction or expected to proceed within the next 10 years. It covers projects that expand, extend or improve natural-resource production, including extraction, processing, electricity generation and transmission, pipelines, forestry, clean energy, and clean technology. The federal government created and launched this initiative as major resource projects are economically important but have long, uncertain development cycles. This structural limitation required a systematic way to distinguish between projects that have merely been announced and projects that have entered the construction phase.

NRCan projects must exceed defined capital thresholds:

·     $50 million: energy and mining.

·     $20 million: electricity and forestry.

·     $10 million: clean energy and clean technology.

For each project, the inventory records information such as its sector, location, development stage, timing and estimated capital value. The project inventory is designed to:

·     Measure Canada’s investment pipeline. NRCan’s project pipeline inventory provides a consistent estimate of the number and potential capital value of major projects planned or under construction.

·     Track projects through the development cycle. Projects are followed from “Announced & Planning,” “In Review,” “Approved,” and “Under Construction.” Projects that are suspended, removed, or delayed are also tracked and captured.

·     Identify sectoral and regional trends. The data shows where investment is concentrating across energy, mining, forestry, and clean technology, and how the pipeline evolves across provinces and territories over time.

·     Support policy and economic analysis. Governments, public and private organizations can leverage this data to assess and potentially forecast the demand for labour, materials, infrastructure, regulatory capacity, Indigenous consultation, supply chains, and investment support.

·     Provide a common national dataset. The NRCan dataset consolidates publicly available project information and information verified with provinces, territories, and subject-matter experts into a comparable annual series.

Exhibit 19 shows the evolution of the NRCan major resource project inventory from 2016-2025.

Notes:

·        Capex thresholds of $50 million used for energy and mining sector projects and $20 million for electricity and forest sector projects.

·        Pre- 2014 data not disclosed and pre-2016 data were not aligned to the 4 stages shown above and as such have been excluded. All data sets span a 10-year time horizon.

·        For the far-left and middle charts, 2016-2020 reports include a “stage unknown” category that was intentionally excluded due to NRCAN disclosure on the uncertain nature of those projects.

·        The far-right chart totals are national portfolio figures and include the status unknown category as the project quantity and total capex were included even though the detailed stages were not.

·        In 2017, NRCAN introduced a new threshold for clean technology projects of $10 million, resulting in 23 additional projects (valued at $347 million) to be included.

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2016 to 2025; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Scotia Growth Institute.

Surge in early-stage projects. NRCan’s MPI, which tracks major natural-resource projects planned or under construction, shows the number of projects in the “Announced and Planning” stage rising from 61 to 158 over the past decade (+159%), with associated value climbing from $92 billion to $275 billion (~200%). Over the same period, projects “In Review” fell from 100 to 72, and on a dollar basis (middle chart) that category contracted sharply, from $236 billion to $66 billion. The right-most chart shows both the count and value of MPI projects recovering from the 2020 trough, though not quite to 2016 levels. In our view, the build-up in “Announced and Planning” signals renewed optimism in the resource sector, while fewer projects “In Review” alongside a recovery in “In Construction” suggests projects are progressing through the pipeline toward maturity (shovels in the ground).

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2016 to 2025; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Scotia Growth Institute.

Completion backlog may build. The charts in Exhibit 20 above show the flow of projects through the MPI since 2016. Additions have increased materially since 2021, whereas “Completed” projects (those that have moved beyond the under-construction stage) have stayed relatively flat over the decade. Read alongside the previous exhibit, this suggests that while resource projects are being announced at a faster pace, and potentially clearing approvals more quickly, completions may not keep pace with new entries. To us, that points to a possible mismatch between the supply of labour and materials required to bring projects into production and the rate at which the industry is adding to the hopper. That said, the uptick in projects entering the MPI is a clear sign of positive momentum in Canada’s resource sector coming off COVID-19 lows.

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2016 to 2025; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Scotia Growth Institute.

Pipeline mortality is a notable concern. Exhibit 21 above plots three annual project-flow metrics for 2016-2024 (2025 not yet disclosed), showing how many projects enter the MPI versus how many leave, either through completion or removal. Across this period, 977 projects were added, 468 were completed and 492 were removed from the inventory. Put differently, for every two projects added, roughly one reached production and one exited without completion, a removal rate of 50.4%. High inflow therefore carries the caveat of high mortality, which has been persistent throughout the period, leaving execution and attrition risk as a notable constraint on the MPI pipeline. When analyzing this same structure on a dollar value basis, the difference is much greater. On a dollar basis, the mortality value is higher than on a count basis. Over the past nine years, the total mortality value of all projects suspended/cancelled/removed was $640.9 billion whereas the total completed projects totalled a value of $322.7 billion. On a project count basis, the removal rate was 50.4% but on a dollar value basis $695.1 billion of projects were added and $640.9 billion of projects were suspended/cancelled/removed, indicating a removal rate of 92.2%, almost dollar-for-dollar. The total dollar value of projects that were completed over the nine years was $322.7 billion, roughly the value of the projects that were suspended/cancelled/removed and 46.4% of the value of projects that were added over the nine-year period. On a project-weighted basis, from 2016-2024, added projects averaged $0.71 billion, completed averaged $0.69 billion, and suspended/cancelled/removed at $1.30 billion, roughly double the size of an added or completed project, indicating that the projects that have died in the past nine years are, on average, the largest in the pipeline. The timing is also interesting to note as the value of projects added was relatively small in the early years, with the lowest value in 2021 amid COVID-19 disruption, before picking up sharply in 2024. 

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2016 to 2025; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Scotia Growth Institute.

Oil and gas and electricity are crossing over. Exhibit 22 plots three energy sub-sectors – oil and gas, electricity, and other – over a 10-year period on both project count and capex. Oil and gas fell from 147 projects and $485 billion of capex to 75 projects and $191.6 billion, declines of 49% and 60%, respectively. Electricity grew from 155 projects and $108 billion to 221 projects and $243.1 billion, gains of 43% and 125%, respectively. Electricity has consistently outnumbered oil and gas on project count, though oil and gas remains materially more capital intensive per project. Notably, 2025 is the first year in which planned Electricity capex exceeds oil and gas, implying that Canada’s energy pipeline is increasingly being built around grid and generation assets rather than hydrocarbons. It remains to be seen if this trend holds, given heightened importance for energy security in a volatile global oil and gas market, with calls from the G7 for Canada specifically to raise production.

Mining pipeline consistently growing, with metals leading the charge. Exhibit 23 below plots four mining sub-sectors (metals, non-metals, coal, and other) over a 10-year period. For metals, both project count and capex have increased materially, from 97 to 132 projects (+36.1%) and from $90 billion to $122.6 billion (+36.2%). Mining’s share of total resource project capex rose from 13% to 19.3% over the decade, while energy’s share declined from 86.7% to 80.1%. Coal, by contrast, has been in structural decline, peaking at $12 billion of capex in 2021 and sitting at $6 billion today.

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada; Major Projects Planned or Under Construction 2016 to 2025; © His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, 2026; Scotia Growth Institute.

Matawinie Graphite Mine

The Matawinie graphite project, owned by Nouveau Monde Graphite (TSX/NYSE: NMG), is an open-pit mine in Saint-Michel-des-Saints, Québec. Powered by Québec hydroelectricity, it is designed to produce 106,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of graphite concentrate over a 25+-year mine life. The project is expected to become the largest graphite mine in the G7, making it strategically important for diversifying supply away from China, the world’s dominant graphite producer. Before Bill C-5’s royal assent on June 26, 2025, NMG had already completed much of the work required to move the project toward construction.

Prior to Bill C-5, the key missing ingredients to get shovels in the ground were the FID and the corresponding project financing package. The Government of Canada’s identification of the project as being in Canada’s national interest (although not officially designated as such) enabled Export Development Canada (EDC) and the Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB) to commit a $459 million (US$335 million) senior debt facility (March 17, 2026) and a seven-year guaranteed offtake agreement (March 26, 2026) for 30,000 tpa of graphite concentrate from the mine. That commitment
anchored a broader financing package of roughly US$645 million, completed through a US$213 million private placement with the Canada Growth Fund, Investissement Québec, and EDC, and a US$96.5 million bought-deal public offering that closed on April 16, 2026. Together, the funding and offtake certainty led to the mine’s FID on May 19, 2026. Exhibits 24 and 25 below shows the work completed prior to Bill C-5’s assent alongside the work accomplished under the umbrella of Bill C-5 to get shovels in the ground.

Source : Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (nmg.com) corporate disclosures, technical reports, and press releases ; Scotia Growth Institute.

Source : Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (nmg.com); Prime Minister of Canada (pm.gc.ca); company and government press releases;
Scotia Growth Institute.

Contrecoeur Container Terminal

The Contrecoeur Container Terminal, led by the Montreal Port Authority, is a greenfield expansion of the Port of Montreal approximately 40 km downstream from the city. The $2.4 billion project includes a 675-metre quay with two berths, an intermodal rail yard connected to the Canadian National Railway network, road access, a container-handling yard, and operating facilities. Designed to add 1.15 million twenty-foot equivalent units of annual capacity – an increase of roughly 60% – the terminal is strategically important as the Port of Montreal is the largest container port in Central and Eastern Canada and its existing facilities are approaching capacity. The expansion should reduce congestion risk, strengthen supply-chain resilience, support trade diversification, and improve exporters’ access to overseas markets. Before Bill C-5 received royal assent on June 26, 2025, the project had already completed much of the planning, environmental, funding, and procurement work required to advance toward construction. Pre-Bill C-5 progress included the following:

·     Secured the 468-hectare Contrecoeur site, supported by extensive geotechnical investigations and decades of project planning.

·     Completed the federal environmental assessment and received a favourable decision statement in March 2021, subject to 330 legally binding conditions.

·     Secured $150 million from the Federal National Trade Corridors Fund and $130 million from the Government of Québec.

·     Adopted a hybrid delivery model separating in-water works from the land-side terminal and operating concession.

·     Selected the Pomerleau–Aecon consortium in February 2024 to advance the design of the in-water works through a collaborative design-build process.

·     Advanced the procurement process for a private partner to design, build, finance, operate, and maintain the land-side terminal.

·     Developed environmental mitigation, monitoring, and habitat-compensation programs required under the 2021 decision statement.

Prior to Bill C-5, the principal remaining hurdles were final federal permits, completion of the financing package, confirmation of the land-side partner, and conversion of advanced design work into executable construction contracts. After royal assent, the project was referred to the MPO in September 2025. The Montreal Port Authority subsequently signed a joint development agreement with DP World in Canada for the land-side terminal, awarded a $609 million in-water works contract to the Pomerleau–Aecon consortium, and began preparatory site work in October 2025. Federal authorities then amended the project’s environmental decision statement in November 2025 and issued the remaining Fisheries Act and Species at Risk Act authorizations for habitat compensation and in-water works by January 2026. The final financing gap was closed in April 2026 through a $1.16 billion Canada Infrastructure Bank loan, alongside the previously committed federal and provincial funding. These steps enabled full construction to begin on April 9, 2026, less than seven months after MPO referral. In-water works are scheduled for 2026, land-side construction for 2027, and commercial operations for 2030.

As with Matawinie, Contrecoeur was already substantially de-risked when referred to the MPO: the site was secured, the core environmental assessment was complete, public funding commitments were in place, and design and procurement were advanced. The MPO appears to have been most consequential in coordinating the final permitting, financing with the CIB, and partner decisions needed to convert a long-planned project into full construction.

North Coast Transmission Line

The NCTL, led by BC Hydro, is a multiphase expansion of the high-voltage grid serving northwestern British Columbia. Phases 1 and 2 will add approximately 440 km of new 500-kilovolt transmission
line from the Williston Substation near Prince George to the Skeena Substation near Terrace, substantially twinning the existing corridor; a future Phase 3 would extend the system north toward Bob Quinn. The project is strategically important as the existing system is nearing capacity and incremental supply from the Prince George–Terrace capacitor project is already fully subscribed. By more than doubling regional electricity capacity, NCTL could unlock mining and critical mineral developments in the Golden Triangle, LNG and port investment, and other industrial loads while replacing higher-emitting energy sources. Governments estimate that the enabled projects could support thousands of direct jobs, roughly $10 billion in annual economic activity and emissions reductions of two to three million tonnes per year. Before Bill C-5 received royal assent on June 26, 2025, BC Hydro had already completed substantial planning and early development work. Pre-Bill C-5 progress included the following:

·     Identified industrial electricity demand through BC Hydro’s 2023 expression-of-interest process and established that the existing North Coast transmission system and planned capacitor additions would be insufficient.

·     Defined the phased development concept, including a new 500-kilovolt line from Prince George to Glenannan, a second line from Glenannan to Terrace, and longer-term expansion north of Terrace.

·     Selected the Phase 1 route corridor in 2023 following technical studies, discussions with First Nations and stakeholder input.

·     Advanced engineering, geotechnical, environmental, forestry-layout and survey work along the
proposed corridor.

·     Began collaborative planning with First Nations, including shared decision making, project assessment, procurement, training and employment opportunities.

·     Developed a novel model offering participating First Nations the opportunity to acquire up to 50% ownership of Phases 1 and 2.

·     Started the related Prince George–Terrace capacitor project to deliver near-term capacity while the larger transmission expansion was developed.

Prior to Bill C-5, the principal remaining hurdles were a durable cost-recovery and financing framework, execution of Indigenous co-ownership arrangements, customer commitments, completion of permitting and procurement, and authorization to proceed into construction. After royal assent, British Columbia introduced legislation in October 2025 to accelerate NCTL, enable First Nations ownership agreements and establish a North Coast industrial tariff. The project was referred to the MPO on November 13, 2025, and the CIB subsequently closed a $139.5 million loan to support planning, engineering, fieldwork, procurement, consultation, and enabling works. Agreements with First Nations under the K’uul Power consortium provided options to acquire up to 50% equity in Phases 1 and 2, while a January 2026 memorandum of understanding with Ksi Lisims LNG mapped the interconnection steps for up to 600 MW of clean electricity and strengthened the project’s demand case. The decisive funding milestone arrived on July 2, 2026, when Canada and British Columbia committed $3.9 billion toward Phases 1 and 2 under the Canada–British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement. Phase 1 construction began that month, initially focusing on right-of-way clearing, access roads, bridge replacement, workforce accommodation and laydown areas along the 165-kilometre Williston–Glenannan segment. Phase 2 remained in pre-construction, with construction scheduled to begin in 2027.

Like Matawinie and Contrecoeur, NCTL was not an early-stage concept when Bill C-5 was enacted: the need was established, the route and phased configuration were defined, technical and environmental work was underway, and a substantial Indigenous-partnership model had been developed. The post-Bill C-5 period has been most consequential in resolving the project’s financing and cost-allocation framework, strengthening customer and First Nations commitments, and coordinating the remaining approvals and enabling work required to move Phase 1 into construction approximately eight months after MPO referral. 

Darlington New Nuclear Project

The Darlington New Nuclear Project, led by Ontario Power Generation (OPG), is a first-of-a-kind deployment of GE Vernova Hitachi’s BWRX-300 small modular reactor at the existing Darlington nuclear site in Clarington, Ontario. The first 300-megawatt unit is expected to enter service by the end of 2030 and supply enough low-carbon, reliable electricity for approximately 300,000 homes. Subject to future regulatory and investment approvals, three additional units would bring the site’s new capacity to 1,200 MW, enough for roughly 1.2 million homes. The first unit and shared infrastructure carry a $7.7 billion budget, while the four-unit program is budgeted at $20.9 billion. The project would make Canada the first G7 country with an operating commercial, grid-scale SMR, establish a domestic reference project for future exports, and anchor a Canadian nuclear supply chain. The approvals that triggered nuclear construction were secured before Bill C-5. Pre-Bill C-5 progress included the following:

·     Completed a federal environmental assessment through a joint review panel in 2012, after which the Government of Canada concluded that the project was not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects.

·     Obtained and maintained a Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) power-reactor site-preparation licence, creating the regulatory basis for early works at the Darlington site.

·     Selected the 300-megawatt BWRX-300 technology in December 2021 and formed an integrated project delivery team with GE Hitachi, SNC-Lavalin/AtkinsRéalis and Aecon.

·     Submitted the application to construct the first BWRX-300 in October 2022 and completed the principal public licensing hearing in January 2025.

·     Undertook site preparation from 2022, including clearing, grading, excavation, utilities, roads, laydown areas, procurement of long-lead equipment and development of common infrastructure for the planned four-unit fleet.

·     Received the CNSC licence to construct one BWRX-300 on April 4, 2025, valid to March 31, 2035, and subject to three regulatory hold points covering the reactor-building foundation, reactor-pressure-vessel installation, and fuel-out commissioning.

·     Received OPG Board approval of the Unit 1 cost estimate and completion schedule on March 6, 2025, moving the project into execution, followed by Ontario’s approval to begin construction on May 8, 2025, with the first unit targeted to enter service by the end of 2030.

By the time Bill C-5 became law, Darlington had crossed the two gates that normally separate an advanced proposal from an executable nuclear build: an independent construction licence and the shareholder’s FID. Main construction began in May 2025, approximately seven weeks before royal assent.

The post-Bill C-5 period strengthened the financing, ownership and federal-coordination framework around a project already under construction. Darlington was named in the first tranche of projects referred to the MPO in September 2025. In October 2025, the Canada Growth Fund committed up to $2 billion and the Building Ontario Fund up to $1 billion in minority equity, reducing the capital burden on OPG and creating a vehicle for additional private and Indigenous participation. 

Unlike the three projects above, its construction start was not accelerated by the Act: the environmental review, technology selection, construction licensing, provincial approval and FID were completed beforehand. The clearest post-Bill C-5 contribution is institutional and financial de-risking after construction began – MPO coordination, up to $3 billion of federal-provincial equity, a construction-period cost-recovery mechanism, and an Indigenous ownership structure supported by approximately $715 million of loan guarantees.