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The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 5% for the sixth consecutive time, as expected. Even though inflation and other indicators are heading in the right direction, Governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank needed to see this pattern for longer to be assured it is “not just a temporary dip.” 

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault is back to discuss the Bank of Canada’s latest decision, whether a cut in June or September is on the table and offer his thoughts on next week’s federal budget and what impact that could have on inflation. 

For an up-to-date breakdown of the Bank of Canada's key interest rate and its change over time alongside inflation numbers, visit our interest rate page.

Key moments this episode:

1:06 — What can we take away from the Bank of Canada’s latest decision?
2:26 — The big question: When will rates finally come down?
4:00 — So, could we see a rate cut this summer?
4:50 — What would we need to see in terms of indicators for a June or July rate cut decision?
6:33 — What is happening in Canada’s housing market and what does it mean for inflation?
8:20 — Where do we stand on geopolitical risks when it comes to inflation?
9:15 — What about a weak loonie compared to the U.S. dollar? Is that a factor that could impact inflation?
10:45 — How do higher-than-expected U.S. inflation numbers complicate things when it comes to rate cuts?
12:23 — What risk does Canada’s low productivity pose?
13:31 — The Bank of Canada made a slight increase to its nominal neutral interest rate. What is that and why is that important?
16:27 — Is there anything else we can learn from the latest Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report?
17:28 — What can we expect from the Federal Budget next week and how might that impact inflation and the Bank of Canada’s future decisions?
19:52 — The top three takeaways for Canadians from the latest Bank of Canada decision