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As most economists predicted, the Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate steady at 5%. Statistics Canada announced last week that the Canadian economy shrank 0.2% at an annualized rate in the second quarter — very far from the 1.5% growth the Bank of Canada had predicted in its last forecast.

The Perspectives podcast returns for another season with a familiar guest, Scotiabank Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault. He takes host Armina Ligaya through Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s decision, what it means for the economy and inflation, and whether this signals the end, finally, for hikes that have taken interest rates to a 22-year high. 

Key moments this episode:

00:48 — What is JF’s main take away from the announcement? Why it’s good news/bad news
1:51 — Was it the right move to pause?
2:45 — How long will this rate hike pause last? Will the next move be a cut?
3:29 — When is the earliest we can realistically see an interest rate cut?
3:43 — Was the slowdown or surprise contraction in the Canadian economy a blip? Or proof interest rate hikes have been working?
4:50 — What does all this mean when it comes to a potential recession?
6:20 — Where are we at in terms of inflation and where do we go from here?
7:39 — What effect have interest rate hikes really had on inflation? Was the pain worth it?
8:54 — What’s the final takeaway for borrowers from this announcement?