British Columbia will lead the provinces in economic growth in 2020, but Alberta will retake the top spot next year as it rebounds from a slump in the oilpatch over the last several years, according to Scotiabank Economics’ 2020 Provincial Outlook.
The outlook foresees a general trend toward more moderate growth across most of the country during 2020-21, with accelerating growth in the two westernmost provinces expected to be assisted by major project activity.
Here are some other highlights of the report, prepared by Provincial Economist Marc Desormeaux.
- Expectations of a broad-based moderation in employment growth—in the wake of last year’s job creation surge—are a key factor behind our projections of easing economic gains.
- Trade-related factors including global policy uncertainty, Sino-Canadian diplomatic tensions, and a slowing U.S. economy in 2020 also contribute to more modest provincial outlooks.
- Last year’s unexpected population upsurge should largely persist into 2020, with some changes expected in interprovincial flows.
- A Q4-2019 jump in local home sales and price gains generates a strong handoff and points to a more buoyant 2020 outlook, though regional supply-demand balance discrepancies remain.
- Pipeline transportation challenges remain in place.
- Budget balance projections have largely improved since our last update, but different provinces are taking different fiscal policy approaches to address slowing growth and heightened uncertainty.
Read the full Provincial Outlook here.