Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.

Strong population growth is steamrolling ahead

  • June’s Labour Force Survey data reported a second consecutive 3.6% (S.A.A.R.) increase in the 15 year old+ population compared to the previous month, contributing to a slight uptick in the already-high growth trend when averaged out over the last three months (3.8% S.A.A.R.).
  • This suggests continued growth in lagged quarterly official national population estimates, which recorded annualized and year-over-year growth of 2.4% and 3.2%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2024, matching the previous quarter’s explosive growth numbers.

No surprises when it comes to new permanent resident admissions

  • IRCC released April and May permanent and non-permanent resident statistics since the release of the previous report, with PR admissions for the two months higher than what was recorded in February and March, but still in line with the monthly trend of admitting between 35,000-50,000 new PRs per month.
  • Should this trend continue, the federal government is on track to reach approximately 50% of its 485,000 PR goal for the year once June’s admissions are reported.

Temporary residents—hitting the brakes or just a brief pause?

  • While a lagged population count shows the number of non-permanent residents continuing to climb in the country, May visa issuances in non-permanent resident categories cratered to 20,145 across its major streams, roughly 86% lower than what was recorded the month prior. This is particularly pronounced for work permits.
  • These new readings have completely reversed 2024’s year-to-date growth numbers when compared to the same point in 2023, with 562,290 new admissions across major streams this year now 7.6% lower than at the same point last year.
  • Whether these numbers will constitute a trend going into the summer remains to be seen (and one should expect a lag between visa issuances and admission patterns), but given this data is heavily at odds with the sharp growth of almost 100,000 in the 15 year old+ population reported in June’s Labour Force Survey, consistently-high quarterly population growth numbers and the increased number of temporary residents as a share of the population, it will take far more than one reading to assess whether the federal government is realigning itself with its long-term goals.
Canada: Labour Force Survey Population Estimates, Monthly; National Population Estimates, Quarterly; Non-Permanent Resident Stock Estimates, Quarterly; Admission of Permanent Residents, Monthly – IRCC; IRCC Total (Major Streams) PR Admissions as a Share of The 2024 Federal Government Target; Issuances of Temporary Resident Permits, Monthly - IRCC
Table 1: Population and Immigration - Summary
Table 2: Population and Immigration - Federal Immigration Targets; Table 3: Population and Immigration - Definitions
Chart 1: Canada: Labour Force Survey - Population Growth; Chart 2: Canada: Labour Force Survey Long-Term Population Growth; Chart 3: Canada: Monthly Total PR Admissions, Major Streams; Chart 4: Canada: Monthly Work Permit Issuances
Chart 5: Canada: Monthly Study Permit Issuances; Chart 6: Intended Destination of New Work Permit Holders - April 2024; Chart 7: Intended Destination of New Study Permit Holders - April 2024; Chart 8: Provincial Population Growth*: June 2024
Chart 9: Canada: International Migration; Chart 10: Canada: Natural Growth; Chart 11: Plan to Stabilize Immigration Growth