- Peru: January confirmed a solid start for mining investment and production
Mining investment was USD 398 million in January 2026 (+8.9% YoY, chart 1). Spending continued led by companies with projects in execution in the portfolio of the Ministry of Energy and Mines, including Las Bambas, Southern Peru and Antamina. January came in as expected. For 2026, we project USD 7.1 billion in mining investment, about 15% higher than last year.
In January, Las Bambas led with USD 41 million (+82.3% YoY), reflecting the start of execution of its Ferrobamba Replacement project (USD 1.753 billion). The project is designed to extend mine life to 2039 while maintaining copper and molybdenum output. Southern Peru (+85.3% YoY) increased spending as construction continued at Tía María (USD 1.8 billion). Antamina (-6.0% YoY) continued investing in the Antamina Replacement project (USD 1.6 billion). Exploration investment kept rising (+32.9% YoY in January); recall that 2025 marked the highest exploration spend in more than a decade, supported by firm metal prices.
Mining production in January was mostly positive (tables 1 and 2). Copper rose +3.0% YoY, driven by higher volumes at Antamina, Las Bambas, Chinalco and Antapaccay. Gold increased +3.8% YoY, led by Yanacocha (+92% YoY), while output in mines of La Libertad fell amid rising illegal mining. Also grew Zinc (+14.7% YoY), silver (+4.5% YoY), lead (+2.3% YoY), iron ore (+1.2% YoY) and tin (+4.0% YoY). Molybdenum declined 4.1% YoY.
For 2026, we expect overall production broadly in line with 2025. Copper should remain stable, given the absence of new large-scale operations starting up this year. Gold would edge down (-1.0% YoY), while Buenaventura’s San Gabriel starts ramping up in 1Q26, it would not fully offset depletion at some operations and the drag from illegal mining in La Libertad, where the state of emergency in Pataz was extended in 2026. Zinc would pull back (-8.0% YoY) after the surge (+18.6%) in 2025, given a lower contribution expected from Antamina following last year’s strong jump. Iron ore would rebound (+15% YoY), off a low base tied to the 2Q25 ship loader incident and subsequent normalization of shipments. We also look for gains in silver (+6.0% YoY), lead (+5.0% YoY), tin (+3.0% YoY) and molybdenum (+4.0% YoY).
—Katherine Salazar
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