- Mexico: Mid-June inflation eases on non-core declines, while core pressures remain elevated
- Peru: Brownfield capex continues to drive Peru mining investment growth
MEXICO: MID-JUNE INFLATION EASES ON NON-CORE DECLINES, WHILE CORE PRESSURES REMAIN ELEVATED
In the first half of June 2026, headline inflation in Mexico stood at 3.55% y/y (Bloomberg median at 3.72%), with a biweekly change of -0.11% (median at 0.05%), mainly reflecting declines in the non-core component (chart 1).
Core inflation remained under pressure, increasing 4.12% y/y and 0.19% biweekly, driven primarily by services (4.57% y/y) and, to a lesser extent, goods (3.65% y/y); within goods, processed foods stood out at 5.13% y/y, while education reached 5.94% y/y.
In contrast, non-core inflation showed a significant moderation, at 1.61% y/y and a biweekly decline of -1.14%, explained by decreases in agricultural products (-2.65% biweekly, -0.66% y/y)—with fruits and vegetables down -5.24% biweekly—and a moderation in energy and government-authorized tariffs (0.10% biweekly, 3.49% y/y).
In terms of contributions, the main upward pressures came from air transportation, potatoes and other tubers, avocado, and owner-occupied housing; while the largest downward contributions were led by tomatoes, eggs, poblano peppers, and automobiles.
—Rodolfo Mitchell, Miguel Saldaña, Martha Cordova
PERU: BROWNFIELD CAPEX CONTINUES TO DRIVE PERU MINING INVESTMENT GROWTH
Mining investment reached USD 2.05 billion in January–April 2026, up 43.5% y/y compared to the same period in 2025 (USD 1.43 billion). Just in April, investment totaled USD 551.6 million, increasing 42.9% y/y and maintaining the positive trend observed during the first quarter (chart 2).
Growth was mainly explained by brownfield projects under execution and operational improvements, and to a lesser extent by greenfield developments. By component, the strongest increases were recorded in infrastructure (+86.1% y/y) and development and preparation (+71.4%), followed by mineral processing plants (+24.1%) and mining equipment (+18.8%). In contrast, exploration investment remained broadly stable (-0.7%), suggesting that current momentum continues to be concentrated in execution, expansion and sustaining work at existing operations.
At the company level, Southern Peru continued to lead investment (table 1), with cumulative growth of 59.7% y/y. This performance was associated with progress at copper project, Tía María, and capex works. Shougang remained in second place (+144.8% Y/y), supported by investments aimed at expanding, upgrading and sustaining its operations of iron in Marcona. Las Bambas (+52.4% Y/y) and Antamina (+26.6% Y/y) also stood out, in line with the execution of brownfield projects and sustaining capex.
Overall, mining investment continues to be driven mainly by brownfield developments, expansions, replacements, optimizations and operational improvements, amid still-favourable metal prices. The contribution from large greenfield projects remains limited, with Tía María, operated by Southern Peru, as the main new project under execution, alongside a smaller project, Romina, operated by Minera Chungar.
Mining production in April showed a mixed performance (table 2). Copper rose 4.4% Y/y, supported by higher output from some of the main operations, while iron ore (+2.1% Y/y) and tin (+12.6% Y/y) also increased. In contrast, gold production fell 6.1% Y/y, while zinc declined sharply (-20.2% Y/y). Silver (-3.8% Y/y), lead (-17.8% Y/y) and molybdenum (-1.1% Y/y) also posted decreases.
—Katherine Salazar
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