- Mexico: In the first half of April, headline inflation stood at 4.53%, with core inflation at 4.27%
- Peru: Direct loan continues its uptrend in March
MEXICO: IN THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL, HEADLINE INFLATION STOOD AT 4.53%, WITH CORE INFLATION AT 4.27%
In the first half of April, inflation slowed from 4.55% to 4.53% (chart 1), above the 4.50% expected by analysts. The core component marginally surprised to the downside, decelerating to 4.27% from 4.44%, compared with the 4.3% consensus. Within this component, a slower pace in goods stood out, moderating to 4.10%, while services stood at 4.44%, stagnating around 4.5% since the beginning of 2025.
On the other hand, the non-core component of inflation rose to its highest level since May of the previous year, increasing from 4.92% to 5.41%. Pressures in agricultural products remain high, rising from 7.85% to 8.69%, driven by a 23.03% increase in fruits and vegetables, which contrasts with a -0.84% decline in livestock products. Lastly, government-administered prices rose 6.45% during the period, while energy prices moderated to 0.08%.
According to INEGI’s Monthly Survey of Commercial Enterprises, in February wholesale sales showed a generalized stagnation across their components (chart 2): revenues grew 0.2%, employment remained flat at 0.0%, and average wages increased 0.6%. Meanwhile, retail sales grew 3.1% in revenues, 1.0% in total employment, and 6.5% in average wages. Within wholesale trade, notable gains were observed in machinery, equipment, and furniture sales (9.7%) and groceries and food products (2.8%), alongside declines in trucks and auto parts (-10.7%). In retail trade, standout categories included textiles and accessories (14.8%) and stationery items (13.2%), while groceries and food products declined (-6.2%).
—Rodolfo Mitchell, Miguel Saldaña & Martha Cordova
PERU: DIRECT LOAN CONTINUES ITS UPTREND IN MARCH
Direct loans grew by 6.9% y/y in March (chart 3 and table 1), above the 6.4% recorded in February, reinforcing their steady growth path since October 2024. The acceleration in direct loans is supported by the positive performance of the local economy, mainly domestic demand that grew 5.8% so far this year. Business loans increased by 6.3% y/y, growing on average 5.7% in the last six months, while household loans grew by 7.8% y/y, consolidating a strong growth above 7.0%.
Business loans show a solid recovery linked to the growth of private investment (10.0%) in 2025. The monthly flow is positive compared to the same month in subsequent years, reflecting a positive annual performance of corporate loans (6.2%) and medium-sized enterprises (5.1%) in March and the progressive recovery of loans from large business (1.8%) and micro enterprises (-13.5%).
On the household side (chart 4), loans remain strong, reaffirming growth above 7.5%, in line with the growth of private consumption (3.6%) in 2025. Mortgage loans remain robust, maintaining growth above 7.0%. Consumer loans continue to grow at a good pace, increasing by 8.2% in March. The effect of the withdrawal of pension funds on the amortizations of consumer loans seems to have been exhausted, given that we see monthly flows gaining momentum again in March.
We expect total loans to continue expanding at solid rate, growing around 6.0% by the end of the period. Business loans are projected to grow by 5.6% and household loans by 6.1%, consolidating optimal growth.
—Grecia Fajardo
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