Overnight markets had little to trade on to start the week amid only second-tier data in Asia and Europe, following a mostly uneventful weekend aside from OPEC+ news. All members of the producers’ alliance left their current supply targets unchanged except for the largest of them, Saudi Arabia, who will reduce output by 1mn barrels per day in July.

Oil benchmarks are up ~2.5% on the day, contributing to upward pressure on global bond yields, while iron ore extends gains (+1%) on continued hopes that China’s government will support the country’s property sector. The USD is firmer against all key major currencies, where its USMCA peers, the CAD and MXN, are slight outperformers on account of minor 0.1% declines.

In Latam, elections in the Mexican states of Coahuila and State of Mexico met analysts’ expectations and polls in the lead-up to Sunday’s vote. In the key state of Edomex, Morena’s candidate Delfina Gomez has taken the PRI’s governorship crown jewel (see more here). With about two-thirds of the vote counted, she leads Del Moral (who has already conceded) by 9ppts in a strong performance that firms up the odds that the party retains the presidency in next year’s election.

The PRI/PAN/PRD alliance won (held on to) the gubernatorial seat in Coahuila, a state whose economy represents two-fifths of Edomex’s (the second largest in the country after the capital) and is a small, but expected, consolation prize. We’ll keep an eye on AMLO’s comments in his daily morning presser, though expect limited market reaction to the well-telegraphed results of the election.

Today’s Latam data calendar presents little of note: Mexican fixed investment, consumption, and consumer confidence, and Brazilian S&P PMIs. The BCB’s weekly economists’ survey and appearances by the bank’s Campos Neto and Guillen may see some headlines. There are no other major events on tap today as we await a series of key inflation prints and the BCRP’s policy decision over the next few days (see Latam Weekly).

—Juan Manuel Herrera