ON DECK FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9TH
KEY POINTS:
- What happened in Japan, stayed in Japan
- Japan’s election drive equities and bond yields higher...
- ...as Japanese and US equity markets trade places
- BoJ hike guidance, ebbing contraction of Japanese real wages faded behind election
- Mexican core inflation continues to rise, validating Banxico hold
- Fed’s Waller, Miran, Bostic to speak
- Canada just can’t quash those election rumours
- Global Week Ahead — Trading Places (here)
Japanese stocks gained nearly 4% with solid gains across every major sector but led by IT, JGB yields rose 3bps in 2s and double that in 10s and the yen strengthened a touch to become roughly tied with CHF and the euro as outperformers on a down day for the dollar. All of that was in reaction to Japan's election results. Very little of the enthusiasm spread elsewhere. Hawkish BoJ Board member talk and Japanese real wage figures played a back seat to election results.
There is nothing material on tap in the N.A. session. Cyber currencies are selling off this morning while gold gains 1%.
Japan’s Election — Trading Places
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party alone won a super-majority in the lower house of its Diet (charts 1, 2). It didn't even need its new coalition partner—the Japan Innovation Party—to pull it off. The 316 seats that went to the LDP was a massive gain from the 198 going in and exceeds the 310 needed for a so-called super majority. This was PM Takaichi’s dream result because it means the LDP can chair and possess a majority of seats on the powerful committees, can override Upper House rulings with a two-thirds vote which matters since the LDP does not hold enough seats in the Upper House, and pursue changes to the Constitution. Constitutional changes could address Japan’s pacifist stance but this requires a referendum.
That was the easy part. Now the pressure is on to see what PM Takaichi does. She will likely move very quickly to maintain momentum.
For now, the market response is reinforcing the view that Japan and the US have traded places (chart 3). US equity futures are slightly lower this morning while Japanese equities soar. It all started around when Takaichi first became PM last October and coincided with greater questions over US tech, the Fed outlook, and the state of the US job market and investment picture ex-AI. It was previously the case that the carry trade—borrowing cheaply in yen to finance Japanese investments abroad—was reversing as the Bank of Japan pivoted to tighter monetary policy. Money was flowing back into Japan. That incentive is now stronger. Japanese equities offer more competition to US equities.
In short, there’s a new kid in town and we’ll see how enamoured Trump remains as a more intense competitor for equity flows steps up.
Otherwise Light Developments
Weekend developments were otherwise light.
Japanese wage growth accelerated to 2.4% y/y in December from an upwardly revised 1.7% (previously 0.5%) the prior month. That still means real wages are falling (-0.1% y/y) but at a lessening pace including positive revisions (chart 4).
Mexico’s CPI landed on the screws at 0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y) in January and ditto for core at 0.6% m/m (4.5% y/y). Core CPI continues to accelerated off the lows of late 2024 into early 2025 (chart 5). Hence why Banxico held last Thursday with markets not expecting much action for an extended period.
The Canadian election rumour mill remains alive and kicking. PM Carney and Ontario Premier Ford—a ‘Tory’—reportedly discussed an early federal election (here). A federal communications spokesperson tried to downplay the talk which is as expected. Then again, I watched PM Carney’s courtship by the BoE while in his post at the BoC being met with endless denials of interest until ‘ok’.
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